TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Will the Chicago Cubs win the World Series?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$388,067
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$139,079

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $388,067 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6356…1885backed Yes0c20,277$45 inLost-$45.442317.4%4 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick9cpaid-52.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c15,843$34 inLost-$34.29480%0 W · 48 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cc7…6d66backed Yes0c15,483$50 inLost-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4f2…7862backed Yes0c14,000$64 inLost-$64180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb236…1d5dbacked Yes0c12,980$52 inLost-$51.921526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-33%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x989b…4c73backed Yes0c12,500$13 inLost-$12.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes0c9,234$30 inLost-$30.47150%0 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…37cdbacked Yes0c8,957$10 inLost-$10.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf3b…7582backed Yes0c8,643$34 inLost-$33.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcc0…9fdcbacked Yes0c8,309$11 inLost-$10.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ee4…3ababacked Yes1c5,000$34 inLost-$33.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3694…1d72backed Yes1c2,100$11 inLost-$10.560%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64e2…0f38backed Yes1c2,000$10 inLost-$1060%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.