TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Will the San Diego Padres win the World Series?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$65,045
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$40,585

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,045 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf8cd…238dbacked Yes7c22,257$1,651 inLost-$1,651.182334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-42.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe45e…ebb0backed Yes7c9,593$650 inLost-$650742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-32.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ba5…aaf1backed Yes9c4,704$412 inLost-$411.8754048.3%261 W · 279 L-12.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes10c3,994$408 inLost-$408.462010%2 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-51%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x064d…a0e4backed Yes7c2,878$216 inLost-$215.8760%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe077…8ee3backed Yes6c2,434$158 inLost-$157.95911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-74.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d03…aee3backed Yes6c1,680$100 inLost-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes9c1,289$111 inLost-$110.83525.7%9 W · 26 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick21cpaid-15.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes9c1,132$101 inLost-$100.8463942.7%273 W · 366 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x660f…ec30backed Yes11c1,000$110 inLost-$1104748.9%23 W · 24 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x235c…ba38backed Yes5c1,000$50 inLost-$50944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick35cpaid-15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xddf3…3c57backed Yes5c600$30 inLost-$30714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-73.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47bc…c043backed Yes15c501.35$74 inLost-$73.59616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c67…bb39backed Yes10c500$50 inLost-$503743.2%16 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes10c468.04$48 inLost-$48.067041.4%29 W · 41 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-25.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x330d…6174backed Yes29c349.72$100 inLost-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82a0…33a1backed Yes13c322$42 inLost-$41.982718.5%5 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick12cpaid-26.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda75…bbf9backed Yes16c308.57$50 inLost-$5011450.9%58 W · 56 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa99a…dcd7backed Yes17c277.65$47 inLost-$47.220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes4c250.46$10 inLost-$10.02150%0 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd13…a813backed Yes8c250$20 inLost-$201926.3%5 W · 14 L-3.4wins-0.18per pick44cpaid-43.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf80e…2af8backed Yes10c100$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b07…e5f4backed Yes21c59.15$12 inLost-$12.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.