Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 3-Jan 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x257444e22c041ff227168f39ed152faf2da67711fb2f6ce5504266511506f553
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $424,370
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $331,274
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $424,370 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 514 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbeb…e6e0backed Yes | 57c | 28,283$16,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,254.53 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 20c | 26,218$5,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,254.62 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 28c | 20,934$5,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,888.95 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62dd…869abacked Yes | 26c | 19,419$5,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,131.48 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6153…0e04backed Yes | 39c | 16,609$6,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,435.48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Yes | 23c | 12,597$2,849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,849.35 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c81…3b0cbacked Yes | 32c | 9,809$3,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,131.59 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 31c | 8,805$2,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,701.89 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 27c | 8,284$2,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,197.57 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d83…24fcbacked Yes | 27c | 7,811$2,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,101.77 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc704…65a7backed Yes | 44c | 7,258$3,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,220.04 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 55c | 4,938$2,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,726.05 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 34c | 4,700$1,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,591.42 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…d889backed Yes | 32c | 4,408$1,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,403.17 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…3a04backed Yes | 20c | 4,000$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…15e2backed Yes | 35c | 3,661$1,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,274.44 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 18c | 3,519$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.59 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae61…4e32backed Yes | 5c | 3,238$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.39 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea23…025cbacked Yes | 45c | 3,142$1,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,407.06 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -82%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…b218backed No | 74c | 3,087$2,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.24 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 37c | 2,855$1,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.39 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce13…596fbacked Yes | 41c | 2,653$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,094.95 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…5871backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 29c | 2,427$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.09 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c69…76ccbacked Yes | 52c | 2,375$1,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,223.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1529…649abacked Yes | 70c | 2,363$1,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,657.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 15c | 2,034$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 93 | 8.6%8 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91c1…7cfbbacked Yes | 21c | 2,020$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec2…078abacked Yes | 3c | 2,020$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.04 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +332.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0681…f713backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd013…94eabacked Yes | 40c | 2,000$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 45c | 1,880$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.15 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,869$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.49 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 18c | 1,832$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.45 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c51…f8febacked Yes | 38c | 1,759$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.28 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5c…5b0fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,675$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked No | 73c | 1,512$1,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.78 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d9a…f083backed No | 72c | 1,500$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…254cbacked Yes | 28c | 1,500$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 60c | 1,497$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.3 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes | 33c | 1,482$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.83 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 21c | 1,389$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64fa…7f82backed Yes | 36c | 1,380$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd547…64c4backed Yes | 50c | 1,207$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.43 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe10e…cfddbacked Yes | 15c | 1,169$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.95 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 1,157$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.84 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89e7…0ffabacked Yes | 68c | 1,049$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.62 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd81…a82ebacked No | 72c | 1,033$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9813…aa36backed Yes | 28c | 1,033$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb99a…a00fbacked No | 50c | 1,009$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 36c | 1,001$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…3670backed Yes | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b6…fa3dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7036…b62ebacked Yes | 12c | 967.52$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.16 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 32c | 903.75$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.72 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…3b83backed Yes | 70c | 837.19$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.56 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…089abacked Yes | 55c | 800$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2a…f2a2backed No | 45c | 800$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed No | 72c | 734.16$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.69 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4d…6d87backed Yes | 44c | 712.75$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.77 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed No | 69c | 709.06$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.09 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecc4…9fc3backed Yes | 40c | 697.1$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.47 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -88%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbb…b5f9backed Yes | 43c | 667.76$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.14 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 34c | 662.08$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.15 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…6d97backed No | 61c | 629.89$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.57 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd653…ba9abacked Yes | 26c | 618.38$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 51c | 593.66$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.73 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2400…f2b7backed Yes | 19c | 581.53$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.46 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1e…5512backed No | 74c | 563.89$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.06 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbfc…0655backed Yes | 68c | 540.78$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.49 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd4…8643backed Yes | 40c | 503.79$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.14 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +85%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes | 52c | 500.72$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.18 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 28c | 499.98$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbda…2687backed Yes | 10c | 499.52$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +207.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…c4f2backed Yes | 11c | 496.2$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +98.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…a17bbacked Yes | 22c | 451.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 95 | 11.6%11 W · 84 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…a960backed Yes | 29c | 441.4$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 34c | 440$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x084b…1b90backed Yes | 69c | 433.29$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 32c | 430$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.9 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1013…7e57backed Yes | 61c | 427.94$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.11 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb2…33eabacked Yes | 45c | 423.44$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa31f…0290backed Yes | 56c | 417.48$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.74 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb4…ff62backed Yes | 35c | 407.6$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.49 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4c…4265backed Yes | 31c | 403.97$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 28c | 400$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c54…5840backed No | 64c | 399.83$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +170.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f76…33c5backed No | 72c | 390.64$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.86 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 14c | 387.15$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c4…7237backed Yes | 27c | 369.04$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Yes | 65c | 355.41$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x678b…5482backed Yes | 28c | 353.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +128.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2684…d3d6backed Yes | 35c | 350$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 44c | 349.78$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.32 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc146…b46abacked No | 34c | 339.64$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +191.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked No | 73c | 338.65$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.89 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d71…6945backed Yes | 37c | 331.92$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.66 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed Yes | 72c | 328$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.16 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +40%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4450…b08ebacked Yes | 24c | 324.07$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc7…79b1backed Yes | 73c | 322.96$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +105.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 3-Jan 10?this page
- Will Elon tweet 550-574 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575-599 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-624 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 625-649 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650-674 times Jan 3-Jan 10?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 700-724 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 725-749 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 750 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 550 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.