Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times Jan 3-Jan 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb66abcfb57eb86effef8a728011c837f305216804183b050e8b705745434c042
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $218,595
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $182,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $218,595 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 2c | 34,415$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.54 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 6c | 13,946$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.19 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 0c | 12,189$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 13c | 8,571$1,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,132 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 0c | 8,020$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed Yes | 0c | 7,769$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Yes | 3c | 5,201$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.7 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 9c | 4,301$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.04 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 4c | 4,200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.1 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes | 5c | 3,011$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.17 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…4b39backed Yes | 4c | 3,000$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,662$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,500$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf27…929ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,480$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.26 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.95 | 93 | 8.6%8 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…ceabbacked Yes | 1c | 1,884$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +61%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…b218backed Yes | 9c | 1,858$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.66 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c81…3b0cbacked Yes | 16c | 1,777$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.84 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes | 1c | 1,700$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f82…2ee2backed Yes | 4c | 1,686$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77cf…9d82backed Yes | 6c | 1,410$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.96 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85fc…f80abacked Yes | 4c | 1,390$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x719d…4e73backed Yes | 1c | 1,138$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 5c | 1,100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f11…b63fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,093$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f76…33c5backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…3a04backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0902…7752backed Yes | 10c | 978.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 5c | 924.59$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 896.52$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.47 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x772d…0d99backed Yes | 3c | 881.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 5c | 600$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 6c | 548.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 9c | 532.53$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.79 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x963d…7dd8backed Yes | 10c | 524.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 6c | 412.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 6c | 400.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 9c | 399.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 15c | 325.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 8c | 309.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 102 | 24.5%25 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes | 5c | 284.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…4f34backed Yes | 4c | 259.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd547…64c4backed Yes | 6c | 250.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe49…e231backed Yes | 5c | 243.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e59…d083backed Yes | 7c | 210$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4d…6d87backed Yes | 14c | 207.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…b703backed Yes | 9c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…d649backed Yes | 15c | 197.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21bd…ae93backed Yes | 15c | 171.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c4…001dbacked Yes | 10c | 159.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 11c | 120$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 17c | 115.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…5871backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f6…45cabacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff0…b3bdbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed No | 75c | 22.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -53%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 600-624 times Jan 3-Jan 10?this page
- Will Elon tweet 550-574 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575-599 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 625-649 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650-674 times Jan 3-Jan 10?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 700-724 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 725-749 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 750 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 550 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.