Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 750 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d11d74919d96d66af5b6a24b117a139c320876045072b18cf9f8f649d991d10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $345,631
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $215,720
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $345,631 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 7c | 42,204$2,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,956 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 4c | 22,409$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.58 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 1c | 21,123$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.66 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 16,651$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.4 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed Yes | 0c | 7,356$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62dd…869abacked Yes | 9c | 5,766$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.2 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes | 1c | 5,665$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.83 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…5871backed Yes | 3c | 5,434$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.35 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 3c | 5,162$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.32 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 8c | 5,127$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.33 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 8c | 5,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc704…65a7backed Yes | 3c | 4,551$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…f7a7backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0681…f713backed Yes | 2c | 2,999$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…77b0backed Yes | 14c | 2,555$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7079…a828backed Yes | 13c | 2,370$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 1c | 2,180$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…c49cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…b703backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d87…8a2dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,797$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d83…24fcbacked Yes | 6c | 1,656$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.46 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,498$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.56 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 3c | 1,366$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Yes | 5c | 1,333$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.46 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,331$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x678b…5482backed Yes | 4c | 1,309$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +128.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d50…1160backed Yes | 2c | 1,227$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea23…025cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,207$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.07 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -82%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 4c | 1,043$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.43 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86f…e5e3backed Yes | 11c | 1,003$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 2c | 1,001$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 93 | 8.6%8 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b59…083cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e0…8412backed Yes | 2c | 934.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 84 | 15.5%13 W · 71 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 1c | 926.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf6…9498backed Yes | 13c | 834.09$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaf…e782backed Yes | 6c | 728.84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…3eedbacked Yes | 3c | 707.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Yes | 14c | 694.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 690.51$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 5c | 660$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb1…66bbbacked Yes | 5c | 658.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabf0…a556backed Yes | 2c | 602.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd547…64c4backed Yes | 8c | 534.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 9c | 505.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.74 | 102 | 24.5%25 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…131bbacked Yes | 5c | 287.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba6…26d3backed Yes | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 11c | 180.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…96ffbacked Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b26…488bbacked Yes | 14c | 142.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x381b…a350backed Yes | 8c | 139.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac56…5b67backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 750 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10?this page
- Will Elon tweet 550-574 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575-599 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-624 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 625-649 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650-674 times Jan 3-Jan 10?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 700-724 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 725-749 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 550 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.