Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times Jan 3-Jan 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65571bd37891863c2b56fbf01fb22b0afa7446c2406faa7405cb4146ad59b0ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $175,967
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $144,796
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $175,967 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 2c | 35,433$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.04 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…4b4abacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 9,679$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.98 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 9c | 6,864$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf27…929ebacked Yes | 2c | 6,241$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.68 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 4c | 4,561$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.3 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x963d…7dd8backed Yes | 1c | 4,548$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 93 | 8.6%8 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…4b39backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…4f34backed Yes | 0c | 2,176$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32b6…2f9fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,924$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…6842backed Yes | 1c | 1,671$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,470$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.8 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…789fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,243$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e03…9c10backed Yes | 2c | 505$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…b218backed Yes | 9c | 472.63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 5c | 398.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 102 | 24.5%25 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x498f…7b7fbacked Yes | 4c | 360$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4d…6d87backed Yes | 10c | 219.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 7c | 148.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 575-599 times Jan 3-Jan 10?this page
- Will Elon tweet 550-574 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-624 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 625-649 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650-674 times Jan 3-Jan 10?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 700-724 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 725-749 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 750 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 550 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.