Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 725-749 times Jan 3-Jan 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00497566aa28ef1dfa792dc799ced9d9efd5754c313cc7b22dca079568ee2a37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $246,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $145,767
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $246,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 9c | 18,649$1,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,644.94 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 13,820$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.6 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f11…b63fbacked Yes | 0c | 13,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 6c | 9,375$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.38 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 7c | 6,437$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.17 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc704…65a7backed Yes | 6c | 5,984$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.25 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 5c | 5,236$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.44 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62dd…869abacked Yes | 11c | 4,906$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.6 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 7c | 4,845$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.15 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes | 8c | 2,832$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.94 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 7c | 2,738$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.11 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 3c | 2,574$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.59 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae61…4e32backed Yes | 1c | 2,468$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd4…8643backed Yes | 2c | 2,288$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +85%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…5871backed Yes | 3c | 2,124$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…3670backed Yes | 2c | 2,112$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 6c | 1,620$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.54 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…b703backed Yes | 2c | 1,400$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc4…9fc3backed Yes | 2c | 1,331$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -88%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf92…55cbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,304$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +191.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…15e2backed Yes | 11c | 1,164$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.17 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf1…384dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,128$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6acb…7af5backed Yes | 3c | 1,079$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d83…24fcbacked Yes | 10c | 1,067$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.59 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea23…025cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,038$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.57 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -82%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…b218backed Yes | 11c | 1,035$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.39 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5303…d66ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,014$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 93 | 8.6%8 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec2…078abacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +332.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 3c | 970.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f2…a7b7backed Yes | 2c | 875.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Yes | 12c | 823.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe10e…cfddbacked Yes | 4c | 700$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 9c | 606.21$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.38 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 544.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d50…1160backed Yes | 4c | 501.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…f7a7backed Yes | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd547…64c4backed Yes | 8c | 496$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1842…0009backed Yes | 4c | 455.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18bc…e5b7backed Yes | 2c | 437.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…d745backed Yes | 6c | 387.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 9c | 338.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 102 | 24.5%25 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc330…9794backed Yes | 8c | 318.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 14c | 289.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 13c | 280.22$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba6…26d3backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…9c79backed Yes | 7c | 240$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa31f…0290backed Yes | 9c | 234.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…131bbacked Yes | 8c | 175$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…96ffbacked Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 725-749 times Jan 3-Jan 10?this page
- Will Elon tweet 550-574 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575-599 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-624 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 625-649 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650-674 times Jan 3-Jan 10?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 700-724 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 750 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 550 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.