Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times Jan 3-Jan 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99027e405731cec721127a7d96da3c28bc9a6d83638596193d91b561a718cbf3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $616,087
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $538,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $616,087 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 773 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbeb…e6e0backed Yes | 44c | 64,576$28,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,018.12 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 33c | 28,577$9,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,288.76 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 36c | 25,558$9,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,400.59 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6153…0e04backed Yes | 49c | 23,468$11,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,035.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77cf…9d82backed Yes | 46c | 21,084$9,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,430.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 42c | 18,346$7,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,585.3 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 29c | 12,051$3,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,501.75 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 47c | 11,438$5,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,063.54 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 31c | 9,961$3,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,834.88 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62dd…869abacked Yes | 42c | 9,866$4,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,706.04 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 19c | 8,422$1,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,621.79 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed No | 41c | 8,315$3,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,425.54 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 25c | 6,207$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,657.14 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed No | 23c | 6,169$1,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,416.48 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f11…b63fbacked No | 79c | 5,938$4,703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,703.26 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 48c | 5,778$2,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,982.95 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…4b39backed Yes | 17c | 5,725$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,764.51 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c81…3b0cbacked Yes | 21c | 5,106$1,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,015.29 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea23…025cbacked No | 71c | 4,985$3,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,529.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -82%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…2288backed No | 54c | 3,800$2,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,035 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 8c | 3,750$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,450 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +9.2wins | +0.37per pick | 11cpaid | +624.5%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xc704…65a7backed Yes | 29c | 3,480$1,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,469.02 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d83…24fcbacked Yes | 44c | 3,445$1,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,928.88 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked No | 59c | 3,346$1,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,967.74 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…3eedbacked No | 52c | 3,320$1,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,723.77 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0925…cd20backed Yes | 31c | 3,107$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,157.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…d889backed Yes | 17c | 2,706$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,239 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Yes | 34c | 2,641$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,730.87 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 8c | 2,500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,300 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +140.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd547…64c4backed Yes | 22c | 2,456$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920.8 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…548fbacked Yes | 41c | 2,435$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,427.07 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd013…94eabacked Yes | 46c | 2,368$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,278.48 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c69…76ccbacked Yes | 51c | 2,084$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 23c | 2,006$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,535.35 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,859.99 | 93 | 8.6%8 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…a960backed Yes | 48c | 1,976$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,034.58 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 34c | 1,891$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.55 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa157…01dcbacked Yes | 30c | 1,778$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 29cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 17c | 1,770$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,477.13 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc7…79b1backed Yes | 51c | 1,765$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +105.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0c…a2c6backed Yes | 66c | 1,739$1,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 33c | 1,712$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,146.07 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 8c | 1,612$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,482.84 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +179.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91c1…7cfbbacked Yes | 23c | 1,570$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,213.79 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6d…6c66backed Yes | 57c | 1,473$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 24c | 1,451$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,097.2 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x415f…1938backed Yes | 22c | 1,332$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 48c | 1,320$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.64 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 2c | 1,313$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,280.85 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89e7…0ffabacked Yes | 45c | 1,305$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.7 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 32c | 1,243$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.82 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…19bcbacked Yes | 37c | 1,151$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.03 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80eb…5bfcbacked No | 40c | 1,111$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f9…603dbacked Yes | 72c | 1,068$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…b218backed No | 64c | 1,051$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.47 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…9499backed Yes | 10c | 1,027$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$926.53 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0b…2341backed Yes | 39c | 1,023$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.05 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…7493backed Yes | 41c | 999.91$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 31c | 996.28$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.28 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb2…33eabacked Yes | 43c | 993.89$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1f…6f69backed Yes | 29c | 975.23$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.99 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 31c | 937.15$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.25 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf208…314ebacked Yes | 70c | 920.54$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd4…8643backed Yes | 54c | 914.76$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.13 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +85%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked No | 74c | 899.99$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.99 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…5907backed Yes | 5c | 872.75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.11 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +127.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c4…7237backed No | 64c | 868.4$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1529…649abacked Yes | 71c | 832.05$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9c…d01bbacked No | 6c | 813.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…a17bbacked Yes | 68c | 708.78$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.15 | 95 | 11.6%11 W · 84 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…5af5backed Yes | 26c | 708.62$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.63 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5c…5b0fbacked Yes | 65c | 664.78$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce13…596fbacked Yes | 32c | 622.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.87 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 22c | 610.28$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.28 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 25c | 605.36$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.28 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4450…b08ebacked Yes | 36c | 602.86$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.02 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes | 41c | 602.72$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.72 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4759…7e2cbacked Yes | 64c | 600$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52be…7b3abacked No | 36c | 600$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e6…ab7abacked Yes | 65c | 589.12$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.7 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 57c | 585.4$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.37 | 102 | 24.5%25 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f76…33c5backed Yes | 16c | 582.27$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.43 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 23c | 581.31$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.58 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc011…0a62backed No | 38c | 572.51$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.55 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…6d97backed No | 55c | 554.14$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.3 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes | 44c | 554.03$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.49 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 80c | 548.15$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.41 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x514f…7bb7backed Yes | 13c | 544.05$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.05 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 44c | 531.09$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.03 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6440…8b49backed Yes | 56c | 518.11$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd926…4755backed No | 71c | 515.74$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8200…f63dbacked Yes | 29c | 515.74$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b1…aaadbacked No | 77c | 500$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3c…487ebacked Yes | 21c | 479.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0902…7752backed Yes | 22c | 456.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4d…6d87backed Yes | 42c | 454.69$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.49 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Yes | 25c | 437$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.06 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…b0ccbacked Yes | 38c | 434.88$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.25 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…c63ebacked No | 61c | 432.03$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 650-674 times Jan 3-Jan 10?this page
- Will Elon tweet 550-574 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575-599 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-624 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 625-649 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 700-724 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 725-749 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 750 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 550 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.