Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 700-724 times Jan 3-Jan 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffeffb1b73817073370edf99b51f7ccb44aca549eb18de151193624ba1588399
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $419,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $217,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $419,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes | 5c | 26,574$1,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,447 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 7c | 26,482$1,864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,864.03 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 16c | 15,460$2,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,427 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1529…649abacked Yes | 16c | 14,626$2,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,383.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Yes | 1c | 13,479$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.12 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…d889backed Yes | 4c | 12,562$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.14 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbeb…e6e0backed Yes | 17c | 11,571$1,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,929.13 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 12c | 10,765$1,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320.54 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0681…f713backed Yes | 12c | 10,291$1,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,231.7 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 9c | 9,933$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.86 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 9c | 8,492$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.19 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae61…4e32backed Yes | 4c | 8,229$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.91 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6153…0e04backed Yes | 18c | 8,132$1,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,456.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 10c | 7,709$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.25 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77cf…9d82backed Yes | 34c | 6,901$2,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,327.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62dd…869abacked Yes | 7c | 5,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc704…65a7backed Yes | 18c | 4,339$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.56 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x678b…5482backed Yes | 22c | 3,756$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.58 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +128.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 11c | 3,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d83…24fcbacked Yes | 14c | 2,731$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.32 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 10c | 2,037$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.17 | 93 | 8.6%8 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec2…078abacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +332.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c4…7237backed Yes | 16c | 1,988$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…5871backed Yes | 5c | 1,960$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.83 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 13c | 1,739$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.91 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64fa…7f82backed Yes | 6c | 1,708$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa31f…0290backed Yes | 16c | 1,686$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.92 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c81…3b0cbacked Yes | 25c | 1,642$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.59 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7079…a828backed Yes | 6c | 1,566$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea23…025cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,518$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.05 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -82%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 13c | 1,460$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 9c | 1,274$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.56 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 14c | 1,089$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.68 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 6c | 1,026$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6174…70bbbacked Yes | 13c | 1,021$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe10e…cfddbacked Yes | 13c | 1,000$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.39 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91c1…7cfbbacked Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc4…9fc3backed Yes | 6c | 940.18$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -88%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…15e2backed Yes | 17c | 938.02$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.64 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…3670backed Yes | 4c | 915.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…3eedbacked Yes | 12c | 891.65$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.62 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd547…64c4backed Yes | 16c | 891.37$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.81 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd4…8643backed Yes | 12c | 856.93$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +85%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…a960backed Yes | 34c | 702.89$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.16 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1842…0009backed Yes | 10c | 696.31$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.35 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f8…3ef8backed Yes | 14c | 691.78$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.76 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Yes | 3c | 648.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 13c | 640$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.57 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 16c | 632.03$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.05 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Yes | 17c | 601.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…8b8dbacked Yes | 13c | 570.9$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.27 | 90 | 14.4%13 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes | 12c | 559.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3c…487ebacked Yes | 19c | 526.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85fc…f80abacked Yes | 6c | 525.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2400…f2b7backed Yes | 25c | 509.53$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c61…fdb1backed Yes | 7c | 501.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…a17bbacked Yes | 21c | 478.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 95 | 11.6%11 W · 84 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…f0e0backed Yes | 22c | 460.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed Yes | 13c | 420$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69bb…0f5cbacked Yes | 16c | 415.59$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.35 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…f351backed Yes | 5c | 410.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Yes | 4c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf27…929ebacked Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbb…b5f9backed Yes | 16c | 400$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c5…e3f9backed Yes | 17c | 400$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes | 5c | 391.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 16c | 390.5$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e80…3082backed Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18bc…e5b7backed Yes | 15c | 360.62$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 16c | 353.27$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5468…d86ebacked Yes | 25c | 341$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 79c | 332.99$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.93 | 108 | 19.4%21 W · 87 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…3b83backed Yes | 31c | 328.21$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…a403backed Yes | 13c | 310.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c51…f8febacked Yes | 15c | 307.76$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes | 23c | 300$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ba…592abacked Yes | 17c | 293.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 16c | 281.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9f…5ee2backed Yes | 18c | 276.03$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +69%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 18c | 260$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…d649backed Yes | 15c | 256.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Yes | 12c | 252$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 4c | 250$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -53%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc46c…946fbacked Yes | 4c | 234.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4d…6d87backed Yes | 13c | 224.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ed…7aeabacked Yes | 23c | 219.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…b0ccbacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 22c | 200$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2684…d3d6backed Yes | 7c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Yes | 13c | 193.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…d745backed Yes | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…9c79backed Yes | 14c | 186.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2649…7f26backed Yes | 12c | 172.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 12c | 156.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d50…1160backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4f…99f0backed Yes | 11c | 138.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac56…5b67backed Yes | 9c | 132.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf66d…f36fbacked Yes | 17c | 130$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…84e5backed Yes | 16c | 128.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 700-724 times Jan 3-Jan 10?this page
- Will Elon tweet 550-574 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575-599 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-624 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 625-649 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650-674 times Jan 3-Jan 10?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 725-749 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 750 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 550 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.