Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times Jan 3-Jan 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f10ba569f9b3589a1bca4b719d73b28ce5f05555decf7f0845b6450a538d386
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $321,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $242,112
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $321,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 4c | 35,275$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,498.62 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94c0…2bdebacked Yes | 0c | 28,040$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 21c | 23,806$4,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,919.63 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6153…0e04backed Yes | 7c | 10,700$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 13c | 9,588$1,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,201.84 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77cf…9d82backed Yes | 18c | 9,353$1,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,717.89 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 13c | 9,000$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 8c | 8,064$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.57 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 13c | 7,694$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.2 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea23…025cbacked No | 79c | 2,957$2,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -82%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…4b39backed Yes | 7c | 2,500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0925…cd20backed Yes | 9c | 2,486$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 12c | 2,470$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.97 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c5…d103backed Yes | 15c | 1,832$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…b218backed Yes | 14c | 1,806$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.72 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,792$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.8 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91c1…7cfbbacked Yes | 14c | 1,507$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.1 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf27…929ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,282$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.97 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6440…8b49backed Yes | 18c | 1,162$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed Yes | 5c | 1,160$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.55 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0902…7752backed Yes | 18c | 1,130$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd4…8643backed Yes | 1c | 1,005$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +85%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f11…b63fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,001$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.46 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad1…5d7cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 18c | 1,000$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.55 | 93 | 8.6%8 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 14c | 999.38$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.69 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…789fbacked Yes | 19c | 992.4$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.61 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 17c | 943.24$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.49 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 901.86$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.96 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 6c | 890.62$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7e…47c9backed Yes | 16c | 870.83$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 16c | 810.15$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.35 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d83…24fcbacked Yes | 15c | 799.99$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85fc…f80abacked Yes | 15c | 795.52$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes | 13c | 777.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.7 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 14c | 766.66$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80eb…5bfcbacked No | 75c | 668.8$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4d…6d87backed Yes | 17c | 606.6$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.12 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf7b…fe16backed Yes | 18c | 603.21$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked Yes | 8c | 600.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 177 | 30.5%54 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f76…33c5backed Yes | 12c | 600$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 10c | 595.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Yes | 11c | 556$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.79 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa31f…0290backed Yes | 25c | 529.22$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.23 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x678b…5482backed Yes | 20c | 504.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +128.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 16c | 502.61$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc704…65a7backed Yes | 18c | 452.36$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.9 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286e…adb7backed Yes | 23c | 443.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed Yes | 14c | 431.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 14c | 425.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 14c | 400$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…6d97backed Yes | 3c | 394.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8770…eb00backed Yes | 13c | 387.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 16c | 381.06$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…342bbacked Yes | 13c | 360.83$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…d649backed Yes | 7c | 341.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 3c | 323.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…3eedbacked Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes | 15c | 300$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4450…b08ebacked Yes | 19c | 296$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb2…33eabacked Yes | 17c | 289.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2400…f2b7backed Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28d6…8322backed Yes | 17c | 225$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 58 | 15.5%9 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 218.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 11c | 217.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e59…d083backed Yes | 15c | 210$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…e32abacked Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…b703backed Yes | 13c | 187.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ba…592abacked Yes | 18c | 186.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62dd…869abacked Yes | 10c | 176$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecf8…5cefbacked Yes | 14c | 157.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e68…c503backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21bd…ae93backed Yes | 16c | 153.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x498f…7b7fbacked Yes | 13c | 152.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe132…2feabacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7036…b62ebacked Yes | 18c | 142.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb8…1475backed Yes | 17c | 125.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcce1…7dafbacked Yes | 17c | 112.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cba…eb08backed Yes | 16c | 111.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 13c | 111.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 102 | 24.5%25 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be0…d48cbacked Yes | 19c | 104.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff71…74bfbacked Yes | 15c | 104.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbb…b5f9backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb4…ff62backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 108 | 19.4%21 W · 87 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a14…3c37backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c5…e3f9backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccab…cb62backed Yes | 13c | 95.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba6…26d3backed Yes | 11c | 94.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…b402backed Yes | 17c | 94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46a2…22e8backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x462a…8b5cbacked Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe49…e231backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b7…85dbbacked Yes | 14c | 69.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd045…7ec3backed Yes | 17c | 65.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc01e…9076backed Yes | 16c | 63.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 625-649 times Jan 3-Jan 10?this page
- Will Elon tweet 550-574 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575-599 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-624 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650-674 times Jan 3-Jan 10?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 700-724 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 725-749 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet 750 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 550 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.