TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Grizzlies

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Grizzlies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,797,383
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,981,441

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,797,383 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 511 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa8e0…1dd2backed Grizzlies20c117,528$23,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,554.536344.4%28 W · 35 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Grizzlies21c114,089$23,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,958.7628241.1%116 W · 166 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e66…0401backed Grizzlies24c69,456$16,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,461.881553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ba8…f9f7backed Thunder79c53,500$42,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,3201127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x49d5…f347backed Thunder41c52,500$21,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,899.991618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick34cpaid-51.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd9a0…88eebacked Grizzlies40c49,079$19,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,601.1312938%49 W · 80 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Thunder56c47,113$26,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,927.3266744.5%297 W · 370 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3a0…f8aabacked Grizzlies20c40,000$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,0002437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+20%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Grizzlies0c32,436$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.445433.3%18 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-35.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Grizzlies48c28,025$13,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,471.931,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Grizzlies21c23,629$4,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,935.5647848.1%230 W · 248 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a75…4347backed Grizzlies66c22,279$14,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,702.7213248.5%64 W · 68 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8114…93b0backed Grizzlies21c21,256$4,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,463.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Grizzlies32c21,241$6,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,773.81,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf730…3de2backed Thunder76c20,088$15,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,848.438962.9%56 W · 33 L+6.9wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed Thunder31c19,994$6,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,876.427149.3%35 W · 36 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Grizzlies44c19,345$8,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,566.546426.1%121 W · 343 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Thunder80c18,388$14,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,699.8628341.7%118 W · 165 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Thunder63c18,205$11,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,740.911,19846.8%561 W · 637 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Thunder78c17,479$13,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,824.2313560.7%82 W · 53 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Thunder79c17,248$13,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,622.1696447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f5b…d411backed Thunder79c15,522$12,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1945959.3%35 W · 24 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd44c…ab91backed Thunder54c14,181$7,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,548.3628347.7%135 W · 148 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Grizzlies52c13,215$6,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,899.7270640.8%288 W · 418 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0642…98ebbacked Thunder79c12,903$10,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,668.79540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-37.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4259…936fbacked Grizzlies58c11,744$6,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,802.148333.7%28 W · 55 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-29.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3a38…c0e6backed Thunder72c11,602$8,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,302.022227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-27.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Grizzlies45c11,527$5,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,147.8729957.2%171 W · 128 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fbb…377abacked Thunder80c11,177$8,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,287.25650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-27.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Thunder60c11,163$6,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,446.9923237.1%86 W · 146 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Thunder46c10,746$4,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,749.8148046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf508…265cbacked Thunder69c10,743$7,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,352.324484.1%37 W · 7 L+9.7wins+0.22per pick62cpaid+60.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x6205…7bbebacked Thunder50c10,215$5,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,123.961258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick61cpaid+7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd78d…60bebacked Grizzlies7c10,121$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.7525016.8%42 W · 208 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-38.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Thunder29c10,000$2,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,10080146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca43…b369backed Thunder23c9,792$2,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,539.946454.7%35 W · 29 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f9b…7829backed Thunder78c9,437$7,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,081.089149.5%45 W · 46 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Thunder70c8,409$5,919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,489.862,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Grizzlies0c8,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.43350%0 W · 335 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Grizzlies23c7,731$1,745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,745.2137734%128 W · 249 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5be…7c6ebacked Thunder73c7,550$5,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,069.891163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f5…d81bbacked Grizzlies20c7,500$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5003828.9%11 W · 27 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Grizzlies66c7,283$4,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,802.4534425.6%88 W · 256 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6ab…5eb9backed Thunder57c7,064$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,063.646873.5%50 W · 18 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick65cpaid+20.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8222…8b4ebacked Thunder79c6,700$5,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,412.054468.2%30 W · 14 L+4.4wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Grizzlies49c6,487$3,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,204.9588053.8%473 W · 407 L+52.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed Grizzlies71c6,485$4,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,573.641471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+16.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Thunder79c6,472$5,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,361.6914434%49 W · 95 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8f0b…eb6dbacked Grizzlies21c6,296$1,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,309.2322137.6%83 W · 138 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x994e…9cf5backed Grizzlies21c5,884$1,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,257.2761345.5%279 W · 334 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfaf…4513backed Grizzlies22c5,864$1,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2901353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick45cpaid-14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa647…64eebacked Grizzlies71c5,120$3,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,634.9819350.3%97 W · 96 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ce7…fd4abacked Thunder75c5,042$3,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,256.6414057.9%81 W · 59 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Grizzlies37c5,000$1,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,85022457.1%128 W · 96 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44a0…c3b9backed Thunder54c4,767$2,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,178.6627547.6%131 W · 144 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9997…af3bbacked Thunder69c4,446$3,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,358.718259.8%49 W · 33 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Thunder79c4,233$3,348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$885.3473647.3%348 W · 388 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Grizzlies20c4,013$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802.791,45149.7%721 W · 730 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30ae…4318backed Thunder68c4,000$2,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,28029858.7%175 W · 123 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Thunder27c3,648$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,664.491,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dc5…d282backed Thunder72c3,617$2,602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,014.663100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+65.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed Thunder34c3,538$1,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,339.585349.1%26 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff7b…52a8backed Grizzlies46c3,444$1,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,591.176747.8%32 W · 35 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3aad…4e00backed Grizzlies60c3,337$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-25.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x07cb…743cbacked Grizzlies54c2,912$1,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,562.95230.8%16 W · 36 L-6.7wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xaad5…ac2ebacked Grizzlies34c2,900$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0006532.3%21 W · 44 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Thunder53c2,700$1,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,256.851,05353.5%563 W · 490 L-15.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Thunder29c2,677$777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,899.4713133.6%44 W · 87 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60b7…c9b5backed Thunder72c2,643$1,897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745.63537.1%13 W · 22 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+73.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb652…2db4backed Thunder42c2,570$1,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,501.637627.9%105 W · 271 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid+14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19b8…612abacked Thunder72c2,540$1,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.282748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffec…7a8bbacked Grizzlies21c2,500$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5251127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-46.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf892…7f58backed Grizzlies22c2,500$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-65.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Thunder74c2,437$1,814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.141,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d75…74a5backed Thunder43c2,331$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,330.74333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e47…a9a9backed Grizzlies56c2,321$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30034852.3%182 W · 166 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Thunder70c2,300$1,621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.3536843.8%161 W · 207 L-17.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9228…e41abacked Grizzlies20c2,300$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47030243.7%132 W · 170 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Grizzlies49c2,238$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100.313,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7197…b01fbacked Thunder17c2,218$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,852.02650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+51.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6790…5e06backed Grizzlies20c2,200$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4407335.6%26 W · 47 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5444…26b1backed Grizzlies21c2,154$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.382352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed Grizzlies24c2,152$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.466026.7%16 W · 44 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-30.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7709…5852backed Thunder14c2,143$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,842.8611229.5%33 W · 79 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0f3…d82cbacked Thunder72c2,000$1,436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.0915551%79 W · 76 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-5.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked Thunder80c2,000$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4007051.4%36 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8342…13c9backed Thunder78c2,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44023548.1%113 W · 122 L-13.9wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7592…f661backed Thunder50c1,959$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$972.75728.1%16 W · 41 L-5.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-36.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Thunder48c1,927$925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,002.2430443.1%131 W · 173 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Grizzlies37c1,884$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.4120756%116 W · 91 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19b8…9c8ebacked Thunder17c1,778$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,478.4438027.1%103 W · 277 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c7…1db7backed Thunder79c1,763$1,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.131060%6 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0317…6289backed Thunder51c1,758$891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$867.463852.6%20 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x265d…5329backed Thunder75c1,732$1,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.524740.4%19 W · 28 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3375…a8d8backed Thunder46c1,723$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$922.982236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f19…b0cabacked Grizzlies1c1,605$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.124423.8%58 W · 186 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-56.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4447…a0e7backed Thunder78c1,602$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.539450%47 W · 47 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31db…8ff3backed Thunder79c1,600$1,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.951050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc82e…9460backed Grizzlies26c1,591$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.3517044.1%75 W · 95 L-0.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Grizzlies2c1,585$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.728783%26 W · 852 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-62%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.