TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5444…26b1

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
69
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Premier League, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Premier League at 57 out of 100; worst MLB at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 26, 2026, EDT2352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$296Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$295.98
Nuggets vs. Sunsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$207Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$93
Thunder vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$452Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$452.38
Kings vs. Clippersbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$330Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$330
Pistons vs. Trail Blazersbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$245Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$184.9
Lakers vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$700Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EST+42.9%+$299.99
Spurs vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,380Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST+44.9%+$620
Trail Blazers vs. Thunderbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$420Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST-100%-$419.87
Jazz vs. Raptorsbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$330Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST-100%-$329.76
Knicks vs. Lakersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$231Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$230.99
Rockets vs. Pelicansbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$2,338Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST+62.5%+$1,462
Pacers vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$452Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST+150%+$678
Pelicans vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$228Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2025, EST+31.6%+$72
Nets vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$608Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2025, EST+69.5%+$422.3
Warriors vs. 76ersbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,125Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$1,125
Bucks vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$492Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$491.98
Spurs vs. Grizzliesbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$290Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST+244.8%+$710
Pelicans vs. Sunsbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST+222.6%+$110.4
Trail Blazers vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2025, EST-100%-$96
Thunder vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2025, EST-100%-$123.2
Lakers vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$432Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2025, EST-100%-$431.99
Kings vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$390Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2025, EST+284.6%+$1,109.96
Warriors vs. Rocketsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$530Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2025, EST+112.8%+$597.62
All 23 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT1566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+36.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Premier League — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$10.8
Will Everton win on 2025-09-29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$210Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$290
Will Chelsea win on 2025-08-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will Manchester City win on 2025-04-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$184.57
Will Arsenal win on 2025-03-09?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$360Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$240
Will Everton win on 2025-03-08?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST+156.4%+$30
Will Crystal Palace vs. Ipswich end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST+183.5%+$68.86
Will Nottingham Forest vs. Manchester City end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST+117.4%+$30
Will West Ham win on 2025-02-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$470Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2025, EST-100%-$470
Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$203Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2025, EST+87%+$176.8
Will Brighton win on 2025-02-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2025, EST-100%-$63.82
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-02-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$968Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2025, EST+106.5%+$1,031.25
Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,020Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2025, EST-100%-$1,019.97
Will Chelsea win on 2025-02-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,180Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2025, EST+69.5%+$819.99
Will Brighton win on 2025-02-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$670Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2025, EST-100%-$669.99
All 15 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2025, EST1070%7 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+23.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
NHL — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Red Wings vs. Capitalsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$305Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST+47.1%+$143.4
Senators vs. Blackhawksbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2025, EST-100%-$25.12
Wild vs. Avalanchebacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$20.72
Oilers vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$895Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST+45.3%+$405
Canucks vs. Kingsbacked Canucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$272Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2025, EST+28.2%+$76.74
Kraken vs. Bluesbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$2,480Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2025, EST+61.3%+$1,520
Golden Knights vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$2,058Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2025, EST+81.8%+$1,683.62
Sharks vs. Jetsbacked Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$357Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2025, EST-100%-$356.71
Canada vs. USAbacked Canada · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,455Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2025, EST+94.8%+$1,379.29
Sweden vs. USAbacked Sweden · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$2,753Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST+179.7%+$4,947.34
All 10 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$390Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$390
Will Tottenham Hotspur win on 2025-09-30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$477Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$423
Will Barcelona win on 2025-03-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$371Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2025, EST+88.7%+$329
Will Inter win on 2025-03-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$765Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2025, EST+66.7%+$510
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-03-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$768Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2025, EST-100%-$767.87
Will Club Brugge win on 2025-02-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST-100%-$61.53
Will Atalanta win on 2025-02-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$513Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST-100%-$512.55
Will AC Milan win on 2025-02-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$3,100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST-100%-$3,100
Will AC Milan vs. Feyenoord end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$168Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST+316.7%+$532.78
All 9 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2025, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Oct 3, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
MLB — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Red Sox vs. Yankeesbacked Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$840Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$840
Reds vs. Dodgersbacked Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$55.77
Cardinals vs. Rockiesbacked Rockies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$205
All 3 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-01-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+40.8%+$122.61
Will AC Milan vs. Lazio End in a Draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$287Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST+37%+$106.09
All 2 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bayern Munich beat VfB Stuttgart?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$81.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Nov 13, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Portugal win on 2025-11-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$47.27
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Feb 23, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-02-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$32.37
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.