Premier League · resolved market
Will Nottingham Forest vs. Manchester City end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92c2462387a15eaaf8c384b1928a4b9e011ed23f67f12c7eda3d9da7e2c403d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,130
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,720
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,130 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe59c…7794backed No | 75c | 10,000$7,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,499.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6656…c7c0backed Yes | 25c | 10,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,499.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed No | 46c | 4,905$2,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,634.78 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…7bd8backed Yes | 55c | 2,732$1,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,515.56 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf148…63cdbacked Yes | 26c | 2,090$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb4…acb6backed Yes | 64c | 2,015$1,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.42 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 74c | 1,867$1,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.16 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 55c | 1,746$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.67 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Yes | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbe…d6d5backed Yes | 28c | 912.45$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.36 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0661…a72ebacked No | 76c | 673.8$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.71 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ef…8ea9backed Yes | 26c | 603.85$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…b897backed No | 76c | 582.89$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf342…5f9dbacked No | 49c | 513.72$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.06 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x479c…bcbcbacked No | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ce…a6abbacked Yes | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Yes | 32c | 463.98$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 120 | 53.3%64 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 73c | 412$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.24 | 834 | 59.4%495 W · 339 L | +25.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Yes | 26c | 386.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f8b…822bbacked Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Yes | 24c | 334.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.36 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…7559backed Yes | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 26c | 301.32$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.32 | 401 | 35.2%141 W · 260 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cd…9973backed Yes | 27c | 277.78$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -9.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x375a…2814backed Yes | 25c | 276$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4af6…577bbacked Yes | 25c | 272$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x295f…d54ebacked No | 76c | 263.29$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb8…2823backed No | 76c | 263.22$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 32c | 219.06$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 246 | 30.5%75 W · 171 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe324…9189backed Yes | 26c | 218.46$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | -9.7wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8583…a5dbbacked Yes | 34c | 197.77$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 110 | 52.7%58 W · 52 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 74c | 135$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 815 | 59%481 W · 334 L | +32.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec5c…ce46backed Yes | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 133 | 36.1%48 W · 85 L | -12.7wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36a8…8718backed Yes | 40c | 124.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed No | 76c | 120$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec89…3286backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf7…6165backed Yes | 25c | 99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b7…bde1backed Yes | 26c | 85.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b1…e2e8backed Yes | 24c | 83.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 27%17 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 25c | 76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 292 | 38.4%112 W · 180 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 19c | 69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba4…8964backed No | 76c | 60.53$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7790…f271backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5444…26b1backed No | 46c | 55.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked No | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 313 | 59.4%186 W · 127 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked No | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 61 | 77%47 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01fc…f431backed Yes | 23c | 42.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52e4…71fcbacked Yes | 25c | 40.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cdc…7cddbacked Yes | 25c | 40.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…415ebacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 697 | 72.6%506 W · 191 L | +83.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 655 | 57.7%378 W · 277 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc24…e86fbacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 74c | 19.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 599 | 58.9%353 W · 246 L | +26.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 73c | 17.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 187 | 52.9%99 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nottingham Forest vs. Manchester City end in a draw?this page
- Will Manchester City win on 2025-03-08?No won
- Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-03-08?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.