TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spurs vs. Grizzlies

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Spursof Spurs, Grizzlies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,121,982

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,121,982 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 176 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcb6e…48e6backed Grizzlies7c320,063$22,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,404.412661.5%16 W · 10 L+3.7wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Grizzlies4c167,929$6,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,922.5166248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f05…8937backed Grizzlies7c122,375$8,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,285.3347028.1%132 W · 338 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Grizzlies6c60,708$3,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,856.142,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Grizzlies5c46,679$2,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,402.071,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Grizzlies7c45,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0001,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Grizzlies7c40,742$3,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,014.14,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Grizzlies7c39,797$2,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,788.9620744%91 W · 116 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0287…8a29backed Grizzlies7c37,477$2,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,623.381118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick37cpaid-66.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Grizzlies7c30,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1001,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa080…234fbacked Grizzlies6c30,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80014842.6%63 W · 85 L-7.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x62f2…07f8backed Grizzlies8c25,957$2,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,076.562060%12 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11db…841fbacked Grizzlies0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252270%0 W · 227 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Grizzlies8c24,557$1,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,868.992,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Grizzlies5c21,621$1,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,177.533,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Grizzlies6c21,600$1,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,29639842.5%169 W · 229 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Grizzlies8c20,043$1,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,518.152,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Grizzlies7c19,709$1,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,291.684,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd248…3b58backed Grizzlies7c18,803$1,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,316.21136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Grizzlies2c14,682$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.031,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8716…bd57backed Grizzlies8c13,332$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,066.5641832.8%137 W · 281 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Grizzlies1c12,666$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.661,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Grizzlies2c10,409$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.961,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1bd…7235backed Grizzlies5c10,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5406429.7%19 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Grizzlies8c9,344$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.51,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Grizzlies6c8,819$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.132,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e5e…5778backed Grizzlies8c8,738$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.521717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-46.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb12d…f73cbacked Grizzlies8c8,251$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.079655.2%53 W · 43 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe075…bb84backed Grizzlies8c6,916$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.31955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Grizzlies0c6,338$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.148820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1448…d60abacked Grizzlies7c5,897$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Grizzlies6c5,891$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.466,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9534…1fe8backed Grizzlies6c5,690$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.426247.7%125 W · 137 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3f8…d7d3backed Grizzlies7c5,513$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38640%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Grizzlies1c5,359$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.147211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78a5…eb4abacked Grizzlies0c5,318$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0470%0 W · 7 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77d3…f4d6backed Grizzlies12c5,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.9929250%146 W · 146 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1b6…c914backed Grizzlies2c4,633$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009220.7%19 W · 73 L-6.2wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-42.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc20b…2fb8backed Grizzlies8c4,500$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3605119.6%10 W · 41 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-45.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Grizzlies6c4,293$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.588344.6%37 W · 46 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Grizzlies8c4,200$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33665939.5%260 W · 399 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Grizzlies8c4,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32086641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Grizzlies8c4,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32043438.5%167 W · 267 L-1.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Grizzlies8c3,990$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.2555346.8%259 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5318…1118backed Grizzlies8c3,750$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-58.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5444…26b1backed Grizzlies8c3,700$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.982352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Grizzlies4c3,462$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.7736023.1%83 W · 277 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Grizzlies7c3,456$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.163,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd23…e31fbacked Grizzlies8c3,129$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.2947354.8%259 W · 214 L+14.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Grizzlies7c2,999$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.9658740%235 W · 352 L+24.3wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Grizzlies2c2,847$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.292,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6df…dda7backed Grizzlies8c2,813$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22524247.1%114 W · 128 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cef…5ea3backed Grizzlies3c2,669$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.62751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa89c…398fbacked Grizzlies9c2,663$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.5412524.8%31 W · 94 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-28.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Grizzlies8c2,500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20046632.6%152 W · 314 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x622e…07abbacked Grizzlies7c2,329$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16317356.1%97 W · 76 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x443a…ba14backed Grizzlies7c2,250$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150387.9%3 W · 35 L-4.3wins-0.11per pick19cpaid-50.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x519a…95f2backed Grizzlies8c2,050$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+19%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Grizzlies3c2,016$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.31,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31a6…0dcfbacked Grizzlies8c2,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16017028.8%49 W · 121 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Grizzlies6c2,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12031046.8%145 W · 165 L+1.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4309…7456backed Grizzlies7c2,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14061336.1%221 W · 392 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Grizzlies6c1,989$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.371,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x48c9…d019backed Grizzlies8c1,911$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.9128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-72.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fa8…c667backed Grizzlies8c1,900$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1603925.6%10 W · 29 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Grizzlies9c1,758$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.228,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c38…13b1backed Grizzlies9c1,750$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502030%6 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-33.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a50…650abacked Grizzlies8c1,700$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1361833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-55.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Grizzlies9c1,700$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1531,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa2e…b357backed Grizzlies8c1,695$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.567433.8%25 W · 49 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaef…cbb2backed Grizzlies9c1,555$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.983154.8%17 W · 14 L+4.0wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+31.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2628…757bbacked Grizzlies2c1,547$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.463912.8%5 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-59.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Grizzlies7c1,519$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.331,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b7c…8d4cbacked Grizzlies7c1,500$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1114513.3%6 W · 39 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-40.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Grizzlies7c1,484$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.3624841.1%102 W · 146 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3c…e044backed Grizzlies1c1,417$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155516.4%9 W · 46 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd937…d226backed Grizzlies6c1,360$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.61643.8%7 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick31cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Grizzlies6c1,351$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.066659.1%39 W · 27 L+6.4wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Grizzlies7c1,343$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.563,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Grizzlies4c1,288$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.124138.6%93 W · 148 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f00…be86backed Grizzlies8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005424.1%13 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+75.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…110bbacked Grizzlies8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030845.8%141 W · 167 L-1.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf90…8e17backed Grizzlies6c1,154$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.6647436.7%174 W · 300 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a46…196cbacked Grizzlies8c1,142$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.373729.7%11 W · 26 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-33%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdda5…2471backed Grizzlies8c1,115$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.292638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc984…195ebacked Grizzlies9c1,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004850%24 W · 24 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+14.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x241c…3d77backed Grizzlies7c1,071$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x08c1…7fbebacked Grizzlies5c1,018$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.718336.6%67 W · 116 L+0.8wins0.00per pick36cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Grizzlies6c1,004$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.242,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb64…5e23backed Grizzlies8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8026530.9%82 W · 183 L+0.8wins0.00per pick31cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17e5…f205backed Grizzlies1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104200.7%3 W · 417 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-52%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f26…74bebacked Grizzlies1c1,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-45.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1480…6e8dbacked Grizzlies7c936.14$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5358450.2%293 W · 291 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Grizzlies2c910.34$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.192,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Grizzlies7c898.38$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.2641038%156 W · 254 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-20.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Grizzlies1c857$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.141,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefa5…b417backed Grizzlies4c818$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7618133.7%61 W · 120 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Grizzlies5c800$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6723833.2%79 W · 159 L-19.1wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-47.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaabb…5554backed Grizzlies8c799.84$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.9968944%303 W · 386 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd857…c092backed Grizzlies2c749.07$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.447142.3%30 W · 41 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.