TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Spurs (-15.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Spursof Spurs, Grizzlies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$979,897

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $979,897 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 461 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb45a…192cbacked Grizzlies44c165,283$73,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73,328.754539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Spurs56c89,080$49,987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,092.1836549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Spurs56c70,640$39,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,081.566248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe19…eeb9backed Grizzlies46c63,101$29,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,026.46520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-58.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e6b…5076backed Spurs54c35,570$19,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,362.19650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Spurs55c32,435$17,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,627.624,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa080…234fbacked Grizzlies44c30,297$13,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,424.7414842.6%63 W · 85 L-7.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc127…d9fbbacked Spurs54c28,576$15,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,144.96333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e6f…c022backed Grizzlies46c28,316$13,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,025.36425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fc4…7a8fbacked Grizzlies45c27,029$12,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,163.05771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+46%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f3e…c7b9backed Spurs54c26,930$14,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,387.8560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa85d…8599backed Spurs54c26,548$14,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,212.08333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28f4…2f50backed Grizzlies46c22,697$10,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,440.6230%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xad95…ce80backed Spurs54c20,138$10,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,263.48580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+46.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Grizzlies30c19,945$6,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,081.068,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8de5…e8bbbacked Spurs68c19,788$13,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,332.6913154.2%71 W · 60 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb02b…fe87backed Grizzlies46c18,038$8,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,297.4820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x60c5…1c09backed Grizzlies46c18,027$8,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,292.42862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5792…d1d6backed Spurs54c15,078$8,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,935.88450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d42…7671backed Grizzlies45c14,966$6,735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,734.71154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa729…9326backed Spurs54c14,840$8,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,826.44949%24 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ec3…3cdcbacked Spurs55c12,494$6,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,622.172650%13 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb101…1bb3backed Grizzlies45c11,637$5,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,236.65955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb53…6438backed Grizzlies46c10,869$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,999.74366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+36.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Spurs54c10,857$5,917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,940.411,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23b6…3eeebacked Grizzlies46c9,835$4,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,524.13046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x412c…97d3backed Spurs54c8,985$4,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,133.1560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Grizzlies46c8,850$4,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,070.971,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04a3…5213backed Grizzlies46c8,833$4,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,063.18580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+46.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xce75…c5f6backed Grizzlies46c8,250$3,795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,7951070%7 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+22.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1439…00debacked Spurs54c8,191$4,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,767.861070%7 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+35.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaab5…de53backed Grizzlies45c5,257$2,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,365.65450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb302…0bb8backed Grizzlies45c5,231$2,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,353.95366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce25…288bbacked Grizzlies45c5,029$2,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,263.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7100…d532backed Grizzlies45c4,647$2,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,091.15250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d8f…007abacked Grizzlies45c4,628$2,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,082.6250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac4f…5ae5backed Grizzlies45c4,569$2,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,056.05520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-59.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Spurs58c4,016$2,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,705.31,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f5…8aeebacked Spurs55c4,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,800580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+46.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Grizzlies45c4,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80079549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9db3…9fbbbacked Spurs55c3,845$2,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,730.25580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+43.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdd3…ece7backed Spurs55c3,766$2,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,694.7475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+42.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0250…1558backed Spurs55c3,711$2,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,669.95475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+42.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x79bb…e960backed Spurs55c3,629$1,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,633.05580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+58.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x23ff…b3c1backed Spurs54c3,593$1,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,652.78366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+28.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Spurs68c3,558$2,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,125.5842348%203 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Spurs61c3,218$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,258.063,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe145…f836backed Spurs55c3,035$1,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,365.75850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf862…b9eabacked Grizzlies45c2,940$1,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,323333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac08…e284backed Grizzlies45c2,920$1,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,314250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x560a…cb11backed Grizzlies45c2,888$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,299.6666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+28.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae8e…2b36backed Grizzlies45c2,761$1,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,242.45540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9c7…8335backed Grizzlies45c2,675$1,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,203.75616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick42cpaid-66%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd84a…0824backed Spurs55c2,673$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,202.85475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+42.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xea38…bf94backed Grizzlies45c2,656$1,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,195.2250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa521…f60dbacked Grizzlies45c2,634$1,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,185.3540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe408…0da7backed Grizzlies45c2,583$1,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,162.35250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa925…b7e0backed Grizzlies45c2,574$1,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,158.3333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa563…4b56backed Grizzlies45c2,567$1,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,155.15333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe156…134bbacked Grizzlies47c2,553$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20011235.7%40 W · 72 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabaa…bde6backed Grizzlies45c2,538$1,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,142.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2f6…f5a8backed Grizzlies45c2,465$1,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,109.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x003f…24cabacked Grizzlies45c2,436$1,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,096.2450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddd5…635abacked Grizzlies45c2,436$1,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,096.2250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa962…42b0backed Grizzlies45c2,433$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,094.85862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa692…0a1bbacked Grizzlies45c2,400$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,080250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd95f…4677backed Spurs55c2,385$1,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,073.25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+28.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c2f…52d1backed Grizzlies45c2,360$1,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,062333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc45…0eb2backed Spurs55c2,353$1,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,058.85450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf01f…fe07backed Grizzlies45c2,349$1,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,057.05425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-49%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbdc…ff57backed Spurs55c2,345$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,055.25771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.28per pick43cpaid+42%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x45b4…5ae2backed Grizzlies45c2,329$1,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,048.05333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x984a…15d5backed Grizzlies45c2,321$1,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,044.45366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa497…e6e2backed Grizzlies45c2,315$1,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,041.75450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0862…fa93backed Grizzlies45c2,302$1,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,035.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8d4…5b76backed Spurs55c2,280$1,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,026580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+54.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x904f…2920backed Spurs55c2,273$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.85580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+54.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xea9e…92a7backed Grizzlies45c2,253$1,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.85333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x866d…4a64backed Spurs55c2,242$1,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,008.95100%5 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+94.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xed6b…9032backed Spurs55c2,229$1,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,003.05366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+28.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbfb…8146backed Grizzlies45c2,226$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.7955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d18…99f1backed Spurs55c2,211$1,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$994.95580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+54.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa620…1257backed Grizzlies45c2,196$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac15…e359backed Grizzlies45c2,190$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.5520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-62.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xda4e…dc36backed Spurs55c2,173$1,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$977.85450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc885…a5d5backed Spurs55c2,162$1,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$972.95100%5 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe804…6a81backed Spurs55c2,141$1,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$963.45425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-54.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa910…3d7cbacked Spurs55c2,139$1,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962.55333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8718…cf46backed Spurs55c2,129$1,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$958.05580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+54.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaff1…3fd5backed Spurs55c2,122$1,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$954.9666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+32.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd629…1469backed Spurs55c2,107$1,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$948.15450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc147…1344backed Spurs55c2,105$1,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$947.25250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4578…aeaebacked Grizzlies45c2,104$947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$946.8450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1399…e7b9backed Grizzlies45c2,095$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc397…6a5fbacked Spurs55c2,093$1,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$941.855100%5 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+93.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xef40…446fbacked Grizzlies45c2,079$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$935.55540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-30.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf3a…0759backed Grizzlies45c2,078$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$935.1520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-59.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x50f8…8dc1backed Spurs55c2,074$1,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$933.3560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaae0…a603backed Spurs55c2,069$1,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$931.05580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+57.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xab92…a4d4backed Spurs55c2,067$1,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$930.15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+28.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.