Europa Conference League · resolved market
Ajax vs. Union St.-Gilloise
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf993be2884e468cabe9ff4bf6a698b14cc930b92b076ee62302e278ba813220b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ajaxof Ajax, USG
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,290
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,290 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Ajax | 39c | 936.13$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.32 | 330 | 55.2%182 W · 148 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Ajax | 28c | 580.93$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.92 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…7cf6backed USG | 16c | 437.24$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…b4b2backed USG | 59c | 435.85$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.9 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98f6…79d2backed USG | 80c | 428.22$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.58 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Ajax | 33c | 338.76$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.11 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +6.2wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked USG | 80c | 300$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Ajax | 73c | 258.33$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.25 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed USG | 78c | 254.79$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5444…26b1backed USG | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed USG | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945e…2acabacked USG | 36c | 226$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Ajax | 34c | 220.2$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.41 | 147 | 33.3%49 W · 98 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed USG | 5c | 220.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked Ajax | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked USG | 6c | 196.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 178 | 35.4%63 W · 115 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…03c2backed USG | 18c | 174.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8769…48ecbacked Ajax | 30c | 166.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.45 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…2760backed USG | 76c | 158.57$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.93 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed USG | 72c | 112.31$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.14 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed USG | 24c | 107$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 111 | 30.6%34 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Ajax | 56c | 89.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.83 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Ajax | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa08…45b7backed Ajax | 72c | 72.22$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed USG | 39c | 58.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x205c…b0debacked Ajax | 30c | 56.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +238.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed USG | 40c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…848ebacked Ajax | 75c | 54.09$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a7…86cebacked USG | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Ajax | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…eb35backed Ajax | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92e7…e3adbacked USG | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 76cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ajax vs. Union St.-Gilloisethis page
- Anderlecht vs. FenerbahceFenerbahce won
- Bodo Glimt vs. FC TwenteBodo Glimt won
- FC Midtjylland vs. Real SociedadReal Sociedad won
- FCSB vs. PAOKFCSB won
- Galatasaray vs. AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar won
- Roma vs. FC PortoRoma won
- Viktoria Plzen vs. FerencvarosViktoria Plzen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.