Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Bayern Munich beat VfB Stuttgart?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9addfb10c56d9f222a819e9e3fb24faf7bd92d78dfec1ec54ea6c2a5681e7a3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,907
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,907 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 34c | 3,576$1,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.21 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Yes | 59c | 1,355$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.54 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Yes | 58c | 1,200$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 46c | 1,131$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.2 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Yes | 45c | 915.25$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.39 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked No | 42c | 895$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe06c…62aebacked Yes | 58c | 433.83$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.21 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Yes | 52c | 385.02$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.81 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…f9a6backed Yes | 59c | 360.85$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc4…0bfdbacked Yes | 57c | 358.24$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x583b…1a59backed Yes | 45c | 333.33$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…95ddbacked Yes | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83e2…ce08backed Yes | 58c | 260$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x963e…61ccbacked Yes | 57c | 200.65$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…acd1backed Yes | 25c | 151$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.82 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06b0…afd6backed Yes | 41c | 147.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +145.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5444…26b1backed No | 61c | 134.75$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cd…9973backed No | 45c | 110.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1218…366bbacked Yes | 51c | 100.65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +168.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7552…4338backed No | 41c | 89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cb…c3c8backed Yes | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d2…ee21backed No | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed No | 18c | 70.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb71d…fd05backed Yes | 59c | 64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b18…e297backed Yes | 59c | 56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…0c40backed Yes | 59c | 49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5a…11e9backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea6…0cd3backed Yes | 59c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f9…004dbacked Yes | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…a026backed Yes | 57c | 41.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bayern Munich beat VfB Stuttgart?this page
- Will VfB Stuttgart beat Bayern Munich?No won
- Will VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayern Munich end in a Draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.