Movies · resolved market
Will 'Wicked' gross less than $95m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x870efa69f5c2694036556d1cbc6f15c91933a75314e489788dbbfde966203d99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $611,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $516,547
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $611,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 171 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4377…1c60backed Yes | 4c | 55,510$2,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,407.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa529…0818backed Yes | 2c | 51,166$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.5 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b4…5aabbacked Yes | 1c | 25,528$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.64 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -92.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c54…7e8cbacked Yes | 9c | 24,861$2,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,208.81 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -81%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…dd1ebacked Yes | 10c | 23,081$2,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,213.77 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x387e…f013backed Yes | 1c | 14,410$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 2c | 11,870$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.86 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 18c | 10,595$1,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,864.78 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba73…0cfdbacked Yes | 12c | 9,800$1,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,207.16 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +9.6wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 6c | 9,213$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.42 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8163…e061backed Yes | 5c | 8,600$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7302…4557backed Yes | 10c | 8,186$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…b09ebacked Yes | 5c | 7,419$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63ec…559abacked Yes | 13c | 7,192$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab64…d070backed Yes | 10c | 7,041$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36a6…52c7backed Yes | 2c | 7,025$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…ee54backed Yes | 4c | 6,355$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.93 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked Yes | 3c | 6,338$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.05 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde97…e43ebacked Yes | 13c | 6,000$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.72 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…e6dbbacked Yes | 20c | 5,911$1,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,183.8 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcbba…dbffbacked Yes | 5c | 5,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.71 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x188b…6003backed Yes | 8c | 5,319$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b94…8183backed Yes | 6c | 5,225$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +112.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…f75bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,010$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…b063backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…0465backed Yes | 8c | 4,389$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfed9…2dc6backed Yes | 18c | 4,116$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…8ae9backed Yes | 8c | 4,080$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 20c | 3,951$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.37 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed Yes | 22c | 3,316$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.06 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x792d…c475backed Yes | 45c | 3,126$1,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,396.07 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3479…f2bdbacked Yes | 10c | 3,110$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.34 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…221cbacked Yes | 10c | 3,057$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08a8…3b8fbacked Yes | 17c | 2,594$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.7 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7b…edd2backed Yes | 7c | 2,338$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe085…5474backed Yes | 3c | 2,332$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bad…74a7backed Yes | 7c | 2,250$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…eef5backed Yes | 23c | 2,196$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Yes | 31c | 2,008$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c1…a743backed Yes | 12c | 2,000$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4711…61b3backed Yes | 6c | 1,921$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.49 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe45…0261backed Yes | 5c | 1,711$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked No | 72c | 1,659$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.96 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…ebb0backed Yes | 19c | 1,604$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.53 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad47…5a02backed Yes | 1c | 1,578$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…a0d7backed Yes | 9c | 1,500$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.32 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa51f…8d40backed Yes | 13c | 1,491$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…a39bbacked Yes | 24c | 1,391$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.8 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777b…08b0backed Yes | 32c | 1,337$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…200ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,329$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x774f…ea29backed Yes | 2c | 1,268$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 15c | 1,249$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.98 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f82…2d74backed Yes | 19c | 1,248$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.03 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9be…fe74backed Yes | 18c | 1,213$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd206…8a30backed Yes | 7c | 1,212$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc51…a30dbacked Yes | 22c | 1,116$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc211…178fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1786…5b47backed Yes | 15c | 1,054$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…34a7backed Yes | 25c | 1,008$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 15c | 1,005$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f62…38fcbacked Yes | 19c | 1,000$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.32 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71f7…0fb5backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 20c | 1,000$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.3 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x049a…b22abacked Yes | 8c | 999.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbc…a5ccbacked Yes | 32c | 942.19$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 12c | 923.4$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.87 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccc…aab5backed Yes | 9c | 920.19$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 882.92$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.6 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 8c | 843.12$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.17 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d36…7fc3backed Yes | 8c | 822$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f78…6987backed Yes | 8c | 770.09$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.75 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e99…dd41backed Yes | 6c | 760.17$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…27fcbacked Yes | 10c | 754$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +58%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5e…90d6backed Yes | 2c | 750$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Yes | 18c | 620.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.36 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 4c | 610$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c1…b7d6backed Yes | 17c | 601.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed Yes | 17c | 600.13$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.54 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -54%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 547.35$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.28 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x872d…159bbacked Yes | 34c | 540.94$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3f…5185backed Yes | 4c | 522.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 11c | 518.14$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.29 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe06d…04e6backed Yes | 40c | 505.81$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb66d…630dbacked Yes | 9c | 501.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2d…dde5backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked Yes | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cdf…45cebacked Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…31ebbacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca5…eccabacked Yes | 17c | 499.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +166.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8b…8e12backed Yes | 20c | 497.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6d…81c2backed Yes | 17c | 489.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba57…1645backed Yes | 15c | 488.89$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa9…0813backed Yes | 8c | 482.88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 16c | 468.96$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.29 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed Yes | 6c | 461.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c5…d5a0backed Yes | 9c | 455.35$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -76%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fb…08abbacked Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc83…1863backed Yes | 6c | 400$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 6cpaid | +330.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb174…6874backed Yes | 12c | 365.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6535…5b98backed Yes | 15c | 360$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Wicked' gross less than $95m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Wicked' gross between $105-115m opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Wicked' gross between $115-125m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Wicked' gross between $125-135m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Wicked' gross between $95-105m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Wicked' gross more than $135m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.