TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will 'Wicked' gross between $105-115m opening weekend?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$232,042
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$225,237

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $232,042 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0f99…9b59backed Yes45c18,510$8,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,130.476918.8%13 W · 56 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-61.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7494…6e0bbacked No40c11,995$4,807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,8073423.5%8 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+68.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes34c11,578$3,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,608.5316040%64 W · 96 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xba73…0cfdbacked Yes15c8,554$1,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,270.725743.9%25 W · 32 L+9.6wins+0.17per pick27cpaid+60.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x37c5…b081backed Yes25c8,011$1,971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,039.829441.5%39 W · 55 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c54…7e8cbacked No6c7,714$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.6714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-81%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes29c5,448$1,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,857.1816350.3%82 W · 81 L+24.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+23.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xde97…e43ebacked Yes8c4,858$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,448.54812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick9cpaid+48.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36a6…52c7backed Yes75c4,463$3,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,131.881618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-69.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8975…e6dbbacked Yes19c4,000$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,2602250%11 W · 11 L+4.1wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+29.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked No5c3,792$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.84520%0 W · 52 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Yes53c3,728$1,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,747.6820049.5%99 W · 101 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x033d…af05backed Yes28c2,494$711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,783.113150.4%66 W · 65 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes74c2,378$1,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.4318431%57 W · 127 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No2c2,218$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4218719.3%36 W · 151 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-55.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed Yes10c1,876$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,682.093225%8 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b94…8183backed Yes12c1,440$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,270.81425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+112.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1eed…0c9abacked No14c1,423$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.7840%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8564…4b2ebacked No14c1,359$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.111625.9%30 W · 86 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3826…84efbacked Yes9c1,350$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,228.57414.9%11 W · 63 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa529…0818backed No12c1,293$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.39195.3%1 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-37.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed Yes19c1,178$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$952.193941%16 W · 23 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x86a2…be38backed Yes19c1,151$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$929.093414.7%5 W · 29 L-3.8wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-57.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes56c1,147$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.967232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1786…5b47backed Yes10c1,093$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$980.05911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick16cpaid+7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8a9…a158backed Yes30c979.72$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.38728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9283…4fc9backed Yes62c932.48$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.58616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-73%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c5c…1b52backed Yes19c925$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$749.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+426.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b50…6c55backed Yes26c868.85$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.852520%5 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08e2…71b1backed Yes28c804.09$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.710037%37 W · 63 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ef7…4206backed Yes29c799.99$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.91136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf240…2392backed Yes67c779.72$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.215026%13 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3479…f2bdbacked Yes9c736.92$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.791526.7%4 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick26cpaid+6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes17c718.32$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.8987033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x30e9…a666backed Yes13c670$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.9520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid+57.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Yes18c631.36$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.362630.8%8 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe085…5474backed No8c621.82$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.550%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda2f…baccbacked Yes18c601.94$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.391947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32f4…c885backed Yes13c588.26$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.6616614.5%24 W · 142 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed No35c565.56$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb2d…dde5backed Yes21c472.59$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.59633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57fe…804dbacked Yes10c411.11$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.11616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick9cpaid+71.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes7c408.67$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.42020%4 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x497b…31ebbacked Yes7c397.28$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.14229.1%2 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7de…b802backed Yes18c387.25$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.811836.4%43 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0070…9f3cbacked Yes16c382.11$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.114934.7%17 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No39c363.04$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.483522.9%8 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87ba…9fd1backed Yes8c353.05$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.545349.1%26 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60d5…98aebacked Yes43c336.58$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.843928.2%11 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1f2…bbc2backed Yes15c333.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.33520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick9cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc83…1863backed Yes8c323.08$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.08333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick6cpaid+330.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6450…c2d9backed Yes31c321.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.08250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+60.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca5…eccabacked Yes11c300$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2681952.6%10 W · 9 L+3.7wins+0.19per pick33cpaid+166.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3a36…454bbacked Yes20c295.2$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.646640.9%27 W · 39 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes20c293.97$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.548023.8%19 W · 61 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-48.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f35…7594backed Yes19c290.74$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.58955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick32cpaid+54.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x42f3…51e3backed Yes21c284.3$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.25333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick15cpaid+57.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe06d…04e6backed Yes38c264.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.41250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+32.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes10c260$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.11233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+41.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x36cb…810abacked Yes70c260$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.981822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-59.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x792d…c475backed Yes12c248.81$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.81326.3%2 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-62.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes23c238.97$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.052334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd053…f7c0backed Yes7c232$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.41616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid+148%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes12c224.56$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.346320.6%13 W · 50 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-38%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x438e…9704backed Yes65c220$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.65650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc54a…4b6fbacked Yes66c201.95$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.11333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-49.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f19…aec2backed Yes14c200$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.13023.3%7 W · 23 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-39.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes15c200$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1702528%7 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86c1…a743backed Yes16c200$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.8520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid+24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6880…8abebacked No80c193.51$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.47922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-40.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2563…e287backed Yes13c190.06$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.75450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+122.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes25c181.82$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.1323741.4%98 W · 139 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cf…caa1backed Yes11c181.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.82520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid+81.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7434…e58bbacked Yes41c165.22$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.913030%9 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-45.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf61f…27fcbacked Yes11c161.04$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.05616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick8cpaid+58%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c87…70d5backed Yes22c160$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.6520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4548…025bbacked Yes8c153.97$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.971435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+33.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd375…6637backed Yes13c146$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.53250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+295.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x379d…54efbacked Yes19c137.57$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.99119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick21cpaid-53%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x80d1…f6c4backed No37c136.87$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-25.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes19c131.58$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.583622.2%8 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9163…9305backed Yes19c129.53$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.53714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda6e…ff2cbacked Yes17c120$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.482100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+262.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb763…f2ecbacked No38c117.14$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4540%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1747…3b00backed Yes26c107.42$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.783855.3%21 W · 17 L+5.0wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+27.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Yes11c106.3$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.169441.5%39 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedf5…5beebacked Yes24c105.97$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.97425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b6f…7131backed Yes21c104.42$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.42425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes10c101.93$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.7414628.1%41 W · 105 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-29.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x100a…d421backed No11c101$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes11c100$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899442.6%40 W · 54 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe74d…22fdbacked No80c100$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802619.2%5 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-53.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ac…d62cbacked No72c100$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.51421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75ab…3afdbacked Yes10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick15cpaid+99.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe016…642abacked Yes21c100$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791040%4 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+32.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x892d…f806backed Yes10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+104.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ce7…fd4abacked Yes17c100$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe11f…9a86backed Yes20c100$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffde…e531backed Yes11c100$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.9825%2 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+126.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c63…a888backed No70c95.07$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.35650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.