Movies · resolved market
Will 'Wicked' gross more than $135m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b9abf47970a7ddfcb5ef4cb1dcf9dbd2eda3048821f5f0648a96dba230871ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $447,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $355,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $447,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 201 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7494…6e0bbacked Yes | 13c | 124,002$16,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,622 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 3c | 24,968$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.82 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 41c | 20,474$8,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,306.24 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c54…7e8cbacked Yes | 4c | 17,356$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.05 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -81%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked No | 74c | 17,351$12,755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,595.33 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 9c | 14,624$1,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,304.46 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8163…e061backed Yes | 2c | 8,385$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked Yes | 13c | 7,084$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.36 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36a6…52c7backed Yes | 2c | 5,658$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x387e…f013backed Yes | 2c | 4,649$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 26c | 4,481$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,169.95 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 4,135$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.01 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 3c | 3,848$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c5…d5a0backed No | 70c | 3,655$2,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,114.14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -76%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92c3…bd0ebacked Yes | 34c | 3,527$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,187.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 33c | 3,492$1,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,141.4 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08a8…3b8fbacked Yes | 40c | 3,118$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,259.93 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x872d…159bbacked No | 56c | 3,032$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,332.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc9…fc51backed Yes | 34c | 2,917$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c1…e861backed Yes | 7c | 2,720$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed Yes | 1c | 2,697$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 78c | 2,645$2,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.06 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 77c | 2,640$2,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.81 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 23c | 2,278$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.74 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 58c | 2,239$1,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.54 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b4…5aabbacked Yes | 26c | 2,009$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.04 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -92.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c1…a743backed Yes | 15c | 1,960$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 63c | 1,930$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.28 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x242e…ee63backed No | 53c | 1,878$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 35c | 1,847$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.24 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94f2…94f1backed Yes | 43c | 1,671$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.89 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b2…aa53backed No | 50c | 1,652$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbba…dbffbacked No | 61c | 1,567$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.45 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a9…a158backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Yes | 22c | 1,461$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 1,329$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.8 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 25c | 1,252$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.75 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2730…63eebacked Yes | 1c | 1,129$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed No | 62c | 1,101$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.86 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf393…7fc8backed No | 55c | 1,051$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30e9…a666backed Yes | 35c | 1,046$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed Yes | 45c | 1,030$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.07 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9529…7c6abacked No | 76c | 999.98$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1357…8f29backed Yes | 48c | 978.29$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…2399backed No | 72c | 969.47$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.94 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked No | 65c | 807.13$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.76 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…f7c0backed Yes | 19c | 800$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +148%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eed…0c9abacked Yes | 21c | 794.73$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef7…4206backed Yes | 35c | 780.26$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.64 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca9…b942backed No | 77c | 756.21$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.26 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 7c | 750.9$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.45 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 19c | 728.86$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.51 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf86d…e314backed Yes | 47c | 660$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x792d…c475backed Yes | 23c | 622.49$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.09 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed Yes | 16c | 620.25$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.93 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 24c | 610.17$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.09 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…bbcabacked Yes | 22c | 606.08$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.16 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab64…d070backed No | 59c | 597.29$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.29 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071e…b2b3backed Yes | 26c | 586.85$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed No | 62c | 585.27$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.52 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked No | 73c | 522.97$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.98 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…2392backed No | 62c | 520$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.44 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffa…83b0backed Yes | 29c | 517.24$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x956b…65debacked No | 62c | 502.32$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…8be7backed No | 51c | 499.97$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.98 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x340f…3cf5backed Yes | 20c | 499.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 21c | 460$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e7…8ae4backed Yes | 24c | 453.62$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 32c | 446.94$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…6d52backed Yes | 23c | 436.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…1d5dbacked Yes | 27c | 400.08$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.94 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…221cbacked No | 64c | 390.72$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7b…edd2backed Yes | 17c | 382.92$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6880…8abebacked Yes | 19c | 359.44$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.34 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 31c | 327.64$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.71 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33cc…a0b6backed Yes | 29c | 304.17$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0d…d6f9backed Yes | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fb…08abbacked Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked Yes | 20c | 296.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.44 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0070…9f3cbacked Yes | 31c | 289.83$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…03e7backed Yes | 17c | 286.9$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…a0d7backed No | 75c | 252$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.92 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…20f7backed Yes | 38c | 250$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765d…23debacked Yes | 9c | 234.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 25c | 220$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Yes | 28c | 208.94$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…d129backed Yes | 14c | 200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9949…3f3bbacked Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed No | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 21c | 198.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked No | 76c | 195.96$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.23 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x190e…6bf6backed No | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 68c | 176.84$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.84 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c1…5d6fbacked Yes | 37c | 176.72$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 44c | 175.76$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed Yes | 17c | 175$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Wicked' gross more than $135m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Wicked' gross between $105-115m opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Wicked' gross between $115-125m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Wicked' gross between $125-135m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Wicked' gross between $95-105m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Wicked' gross less than $95m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.