TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will 'Wicked' gross between $95-105m opening weekend?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$309,839
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$147,356

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $309,839 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa529…0818backed Yes4c31,697$1,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,256.47195.3%1 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-37.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes3c29,823$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.3918719.3%36 W · 151 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-55.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75b4…5aabbacked Yes1c21,755$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.96175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-92.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe085…5474backed Yes1c17,647$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.5250%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba73…0cfdbacked Yes12c14,788$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,709.985743.9%25 W · 32 L+9.6wins+0.17per pick27cpaid+60.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes4c13,625$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.89520%0 W · 52 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f99…9b59backed Yes8c12,523$1,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,040.66918.8%13 W · 56 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-61.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes11c9,992$1,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,141.9516040%64 W · 96 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Yes4c9,712$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.215848.3%28 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36a6…52c7backed Yes3c7,601$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.141618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-69.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63ec…559abacked Yes9c5,645$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.03425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes12c5,235$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.156320.6%13 W · 50 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-38%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8975…e6dbbacked Yes18c4,690$844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844.232250%11 W · 11 L+4.1wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+29.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xde97…e43ebacked Yes6c4,014$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.54812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick9cpaid+48.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3826…84efbacked Yes7c4,000$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.967414.9%11 W · 63 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37c5…b081backed Yes18c3,887$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.899441.5%39 W · 55 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes3c3,760$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.867232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb4…ee54backed Yes6c3,452$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20090%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3479…f2bdbacked Yes5c3,202$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.351526.7%4 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick26cpaid+6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b94…8183backed Yes4c3,089$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.24425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+112.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x049a…b22abacked Yes4c3,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13070%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d03…289abacked Yes0c2,343$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.950%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed Yes8c2,290$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.93225%8 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes2c2,055$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.043522.9%8 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b50…6c55backed Yes5c2,003$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.192520%5 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes7c1,984$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.9250633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x033d…af05backed Yes17c1,916$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.3513150.4%66 W · 65 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0231…45d0backed Yes3c1,671$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.32425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick10cpaid+52.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30e9…a666backed Yes8c1,480$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.7520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid+57.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3b6d…ec40backed Yes9c1,469$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c54…7e8cbacked Yes9c1,413$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.63714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-81%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1786…5b47backed Yes10c1,384$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.94911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick16cpaid+7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc3f…5185backed Yes1c1,277$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes9c1,257$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+41.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf240…2392backed Yes6c1,141$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685026%13 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7302…4557backed Yes6c1,096$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1f2…bbc2backed Yes9c1,034$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick9cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9163…9305backed Yes2c1,001$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x382c…a0d7backed Yes4c1,000$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361020%2 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-51.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cd0…5e51backed Yes6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cdf…45cebacked Yes6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8163…e061backed Yes3c900$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.840%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4711…61b3backed Yes6c879.27$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.75933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes6c788.48$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.422020%4 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32f4…c885backed Yes9c764.35$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.5116614.5%24 W · 142 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87ba…9fd1backed Yes5c734.86$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355349.1%26 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x872d…159bbacked Yes28c715.36$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-55.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed Yes7c710$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.153941%16 W · 23 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x08e2…71b1backed Yes3c695.81$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.510037%37 W · 63 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f7f…e26bbacked Yes14c694.72$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86a2…be38backed Yes20c693.96$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.223414.7%5 W · 29 L-3.8wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-57.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd053…f7c0backed Yes5c667$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.68616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid+148%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a36…454bbacked No78c654.78$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.16640.9%27 W · 39 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f5e…90d6backed Yes8c649.98$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8260%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Yes21c621.57$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.272630.8%8 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda2f…baccbacked Yes20c608.5$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.71947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc83…1863backed Yes4c561.58$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick6cpaid+330.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x774f…ea29backed Yes4c535.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20110%0 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedf5…5beebacked Yes5c510$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.19425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb2d…dde5backed Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ef7…4206backed Yes6c463.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Yes19c455.48$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8550%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes17c431.32$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.588023.8%19 W · 61 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-48.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6535…5b98backed Yes6c410$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9238.7%2 W · 21 L-4.2wins-0.18per pick27cpaid-81.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc2d2…4f4bbacked Yes18c400$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-41.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f78…6987backed Yes6c396.05$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.51010%1 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-33.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bad…74a7backed Yes19c396.04$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.83130%0 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes3c382.12$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.312334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0070…9f3cbacked Yes3c324.28$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104934.7%17 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbca5…eccabacked Yes17c300$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.61952.6%10 W · 9 L+3.7wins+0.19per pick33cpaid+166.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe016…642abacked Yes17c300$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521040%4 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+32.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x497b…31ebbacked Yes3c293.31$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.17229.1%2 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9be…fe74backed Yes8c286.11$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24911.1%1 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-49.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57fe…804dbacked Yes11c278.18$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick9cpaid+71.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6492…4d25backed Yes4c267.34$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.76250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7434…e58bbacked Yes11c262$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293030%9 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-45.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x792d…c475backed Yes18c255.26$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45326.3%2 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-62.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbae4…c085backed Yes10c253.9$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.481286.3%8 W · 120 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-77.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x91d5…ddf5backed Yes6c250$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1550%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd375…6637backed Yes9c234.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+295.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb883…21b8backed Yes9c233.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.06742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a11…6df2backed Yes16c200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322433.3%8 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-36.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf41…1587backed Yes20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-38.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b46…0fdcbacked Yes6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-74.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x87e9…d811backed Yes6c198.43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe11f…9a86backed Yes15c194.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf11f…df5cbacked Yes14c170$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab74…3996backed Yes9c156$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0470%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f35…7594backed Yes12c150$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.91955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick32cpaid+54.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcab1…b2b1backed Yes8c141.92$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.991811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-84.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f5c…7560backed Yes17c118.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9393…1947backed Yes20c116.43$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2350%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe74d…22fdbacked No79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212619.2%5 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-53.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3e8…e81fbacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070%0 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa74…6bcbbacked No79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-30.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c6d…81c2backed Yes12c91.39$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2740%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x892d…f806backed Yes19c90$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+104.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa07a…39c6backed Yes14c72$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd449…8058backed Yes16c64.52$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+420%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a1f…c4eabacked Yes18c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.