Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16956a610c9d8125b3ef2de86e26740281e9fbcf442892c363ffd4aa0938a243
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $376,388
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $342,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $376,388 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 307 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 50c | 17,931$9,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,884.04 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbeb…e6e0backed Yes | 64c | 15,151$9,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,383.77 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 18c | 13,469$2,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,997.78 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 20c | 13,289$2,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,577.53 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 23c | 10,832$2,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,359.61 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 15c | 10,492$1,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,946.7 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 47c | 10,324$4,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,866.47 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes | 72c | 8,039$5,781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,258.11 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 47c | 7,856$3,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,186.77 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x305c…dc57backed Yes | 74c | 6,022$4,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,582.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4345…77fabacked Yes | 25c | 5,749$1,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,283.79 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc066…672dbacked Yes | 50c | 5,037$2,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,533.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3c…8e95backed No | 50c | 4,984$2,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,507.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 57c | 4,877$2,773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,773.28 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e4…f310backed Yes | 33c | 4,605$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,104.95 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…be84backed Yes | 45c | 4,364$1,973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,390.36 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed No | 7c | 4,252$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.49 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +10.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4166…6be1backed Yes | 42c | 3,840$1,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,217.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +136.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 7c | 3,669$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,396.55 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…3a04backed No | 49c | 3,586$1,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,755.13 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 36c | 3,150$1,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,018.6 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2a…a436backed Yes | 40c | 2,130$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,288.12 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd547…64c4backed Yes | 43c | 2,074$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.25 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76eb…525abacked Yes | 8c | 1,946$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,790.09 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…a3e7backed Yes | 6c | 1,808$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,708.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,708.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 38c | 1,778$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,102.56 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 9c | 1,776$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,615.28 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d43…e2a0backed Yes | 5c | 1,716$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,635.03 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked No | 75c | 1,556$1,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,164.19 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…94acbacked Yes | 21c | 1,541$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,211.89 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c0…ae94backed No | 65c | 1,498$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…6842backed No | 65c | 1,418$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928.26 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 34c | 1,363$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.46 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bef…5377backed No | 75c | 1,334$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.52 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e1…f770backed Yes | 55c | 1,269$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b9…81e5backed Yes | 8c | 1,257$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,156.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x963d…7dd8backed Yes | 51c | 1,252$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.81 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…4b39backed Yes | 16c | 1,249$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,054.36 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…85fabacked Yes | 9c | 1,133$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.67 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x735f…536abacked Yes | 53c | 1,007$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…24febacked No | 41c | 1,001$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.85 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd77…84edbacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.48 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed No | 8c | 999.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab1b…b851backed Yes | 44c | 964.19$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.61 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3510…2238backed Yes | 41c | 935.32$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.88 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8376…ed08backed Yes | 33c | 912$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +199.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe85b…ab6bbacked Yes | 31c | 868.77$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.09 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 19c | 849.19$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.79 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3771…5671backed Yes | 38c | 819.01$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…67c7backed Yes | 28c | 800.1$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33cc…a0b6backed No | 55c | 789.6$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc7…4e56backed Yes | 64c | 765.95$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.97 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16d6…c556backed Yes | 34c | 728.77$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.78 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7961…2da2backed Yes | 56c | 727.08$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.24 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1842…0009backed Yes | 13c | 717.8$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.8 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed No | 34c | 690.74$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.08 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcd…f4d6backed Yes | 26c | 657.92$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 72c | 626.43$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.97 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd163…b3d7backed Yes | 8c | 624.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,150%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x615b…7958backed Yes | 19c | 596.71$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.73 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74b5…9628backed Yes | 42c | 596.69$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5915…3fb7backed Yes | 68c | 592.13$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20e7…ba07backed Yes | 43c | 583.96$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…4007backed Yes | 80c | 565.32$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.74 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed No | 35c | 540.99$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.12 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed No | 75c | 535.47$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5dc…0d98backed Yes | 18c | 535.37$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.23 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 28c | 528.42$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.75 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf59…fefdbacked Yes | 27c | 524.21$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.07 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4872…128fbacked Yes | 33c | 515.54$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.84 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…bf23backed Yes | 68c | 508.88$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01d6…bf6ebacked Yes | 7c | 501.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.42 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…ff74backed Yes | 6c | 500$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b40…2cbdbacked Yes | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a32…ae7bbacked Yes | 29c | 478.71$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.16 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c47…174bbacked Yes | 11c | 470$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.16 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | +162.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31bc…7259backed Yes | 59c | 459.73$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.96 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cf…004dbacked Yes | 23c | 458.91$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdaa…aef5backed Yes | 55c | 458.25$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 30c | 455$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.44 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x774f…ea29backed Yes | 49c | 454.8$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.07 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e5…dbc9backed Yes | 33c | 443.01$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.7 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1e…5512backed No | 64c | 434.12$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.33 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0796…7d5cbacked Yes | 33c | 423.24$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.59 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 34c | 414.38$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.38 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5a…0814backed Yes | 24c | 412.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +312.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…4b6fbacked No | 72c | 404.66$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8f…d085backed Yes | 7c | 386.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,387.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c43…84fcbacked Yes | 56c | 385.25$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccb3…8d4bbacked Yes | 54c | 383.57$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e03…9c10backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.37 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73c0…0d0ebacked Yes | 6c | 362.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +504.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…b2b1backed Yes | 74c | 360.92$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed No | 46c | 351.68$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.35 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…2ce1backed Yes | 4c | 344.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.12 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb4…ff62backed Yes | 35c | 338.31$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.14 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 335.46$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.08 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…d647backed Yes | 60c | 332.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?this page
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550 or more times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.