Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Nov 29-Dec 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa336d8cf008d70655ad2da3c4b932dac68e0b5c2b82e188fa961aa6263d47b08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,108
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,491
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,108 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 1c | 9,404$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.43 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 10c | 5,314$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.07 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 8c | 5,000$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.7 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 10c | 4,500$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.31 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…2ce1backed Yes | 11c | 4,085$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.74 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 1,981$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.99 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d12…007fbacked Yes | 15c | 1,674$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f5…5b68backed Yes | 1c | 1,612$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4345…77fabacked Yes | 14c | 1,535$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 16c | 1,525$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 2c | 1,450$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…4fc9backed Yes | 14c | 1,351$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.89 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,067$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.7 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c8…0b36backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes | 10c | 827$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.1 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f8…b372backed Yes | 8c | 774.24$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.58 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb281…f5d5backed Yes | 15c | 721.65$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7d…3bb1backed Yes | 8c | 609.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.03 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe642…9440backed Yes | 11c | 543.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 14c | 425.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 12c | 386.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 102 | 24.5%25 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 9c | 385.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x615b…7958backed Yes | 13c | 364.66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.39 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa72…1285backed Yes | 12c | 360$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 14c | 330$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d43…e2a0backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4672…a1e8backed Yes | 12c | 300$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 139 | 17.3%24 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 7c | 225.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa51b…26b1backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2977…fbbcbacked Yes | 16c | 221.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…9e42backed Yes | 15c | 211.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…f927backed Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 13c | 198.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 71 | 9.9%7 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…12debacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0b…58d5backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05af…d210backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 74c | 57.69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53f4…1837backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Nov 29-Dec 6?this page
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550 or more times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.