Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Nov 29-Dec 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe194d0d6bb0ee79b057a5ff78a8de3dba3952c186ead9123a287ee431ab19fb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $97,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 7c | 9,328$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.61 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 7c | 8,897$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.06 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 2c | 7,495$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.34 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 1c | 7,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 10c | 5,042$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.71 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 7c | 4,771$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…2ce1backed Yes | 8c | 2,863$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.28 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 2,072$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.61 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 11c | 1,662$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.99 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…4fc9backed Yes | 15c | 1,605$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.79 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4345…77fabacked Yes | 15c | 1,471$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 12c | 1,368$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,337$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.84 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2a…a436backed Yes | 6c | 1,128$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.67 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74c8…0b36backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 10c | 922.69$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x320a…64aabacked Yes | 3c | 900.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b40…2cbdbacked Yes | 11c | 900$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes | 15c | 831.96$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.64 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc38…3ad9backed Yes | 2c | 791.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd8…af91backed Yes | 3c | 563.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37ba…97a1backed Yes | 4c | 550$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…b09ebacked Yes | 6c | 542.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d43…e2a0backed Yes | 8c | 507$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27fa…09dfbacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…4f34backed Yes | 3c | 499.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f8…b372backed Yes | 13c | 495$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.57 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe642…9440backed Yes | 12c | 456.43$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.77 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…9499backed Yes | 5c | 434.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 8c | 402.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 12c | 374.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 266 | 19.5%52 W · 214 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x615b…7958backed Yes | 14c | 321.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 7c | 309.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 17c | 297.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e09…c03abacked Yes | 11c | 283.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2977…fbbcbacked Yes | 13c | 280$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16d6…c556backed Yes | 8c | 277.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 11c | 221.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 102 | 24.5%25 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 139 | 17.3%24 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…f927backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1e…5512backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f63…471ebacked Yes | 10c | 195.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb25…3ce5backed Yes | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5023…3f6abacked Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +104%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…f97bbacked Yes | 13c | 149$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.51per pick | 24cpaid | +172.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 11c | 141.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffc7…4e56backed Yes | 14c | 138.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97d9…9bd6backed Yes | 15c | 137$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 10c | 130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…7d53backed Yes | 15c | 122.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2e…182dbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x774f…ea29backed Yes | 11c | 94.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71b3…6422backed Yes | 14c | 72.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Nov 29-Dec 6?this page
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550 or more times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.