Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Nov 29-Dec 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed1ab12fec1fdba110da3e7ebf4eefe0cec0e6bfdf5a75ccff1a275ffca9a35d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,217
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,513
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,217 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,104$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.3 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…2ce1backed Yes | 11c | 4,589$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.09 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 10c | 4,152$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.15 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 5c | 4,100$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.42 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 3c | 4,039$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.36 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 14c | 3,048$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.56 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 3c | 1,502$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 2c | 1,398$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,231$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 4c | 1,091$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…24febacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b6…fa3dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 7c | 829.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.9 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 16c | 643.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 135 | 19.3%26 W · 109 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7af…2f7cbacked Yes | 7c | 420$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 31cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 13c | 376$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 314.34$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…e42abacked Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +64%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f8…b372backed Yes | 12c | 285.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf9…21f6backed Yes | 11c | 281.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55ea…2ba7backed Yes | 17c | 281$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -65%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97d9…9bd6backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…74fdbacked Yes | 21c | 203.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed Yes | 18c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4672…a1e8backed Yes | 11c | 198.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…b872backed Yes | 11c | 176.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed Yes | 9c | 160$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac37…55eabacked Yes | 13c | 131$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe5…66c2backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 18c | 120$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 102 | 24.5%25 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f30…1379backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Nov 29-Dec 6?this page
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550 or more times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.