Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Nov 29-Dec 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45b4eccf3ff1093be9c2dba9bbb19d1536103a76aac586f0e5b2bb61700b93f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $139,189
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,816
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,189 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 13c | 13,236$1,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,755.99 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 10c | 6,872$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.99 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 50c | 5,832$2,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,911.64 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 22c | 4,355$947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947.2 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 8c | 3,866$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.5 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 1c | 3,731$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 29c | 3,618$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065.5 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0103…fc89backed Yes | 35c | 2,626$927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 7c | 2,508$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.27 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6c…9047backed Yes | 37c | 2,390$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.69 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4345…77fabacked Yes | 21c | 2,097$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.45 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d43…e2a0backed Yes | 4c | 1,886$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.28 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 23c | 1,656$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.19 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 21c | 1,568$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.11 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 39c | 1,548$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.56 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 2c | 1,394$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes | 35c | 1,317$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.02 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 27c | 1,191$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.58 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d6…c556backed Yes | 18c | 1,152$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.79 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x963d…7dd8backed Yes | 64c | 1,139$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.06 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b5…9628backed Yes | 35c | 1,130$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.09 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…4fc9backed Yes | 28c | 1,044$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.75 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffc7…4e56backed Yes | 40c | 1,038$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.9 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd547…64c4backed Yes | 21c | 1,030$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.49 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 18c | 1,023$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.14 | 139 | 17.3%24 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…a3afbacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ee…9311backed Yes | 42c | 953.57$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…2ce1backed Yes | 5c | 892$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d18…b702backed Yes | 42c | 886$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.12 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -76%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…a62dbacked Yes | 39c | 882.29$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 23c | 876.1$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.66 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 859.64$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.23 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 851.93$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.4 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 20c | 813.61$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.8 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75da…4688backed No | 75c | 761.48$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.37 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9b…99d1backed Yes | 20c | 743.67$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe61e…e2c2backed Yes | 28c | 718.21$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20e7…ba07backed Yes | 28c | 706.48$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…6842backed Yes | 16c | 702.39$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.47 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74c8…0b36backed Yes | 28c | 700$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3e…3096backed Yes | 65c | 700$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…4f34backed Yes | 24c | 699.99$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31bc…7259backed Yes | 34c | 634.13$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.57 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 56c | 616.2$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.42 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccb3…8d4bbacked Yes | 42c | 608.09$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 31c | 576.82$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.82 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce73…70a9backed Yes | 16c | 565$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.4 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -32%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…8df5backed Yes | 43c | 562.14$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.12 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3510…2238backed Yes | 51c | 545.3$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.23 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5dc…0d98backed Yes | 15c | 544.71$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.37 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 29c | 512.99$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.79 | 127 | 45.7%58 W · 69 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe85b…ab6bbacked Yes | 46c | 511.79$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c43…84fcbacked Yes | 13c | 503.4$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…ff74backed Yes | 7c | 500.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5915…3fb7backed Yes | 42c | 499.91$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…44f2backed Yes | 14c | 498.16$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.6 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2977…fbbcbacked Yes | 6c | 477.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…e42abacked Yes | 18c | 462.16$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.81 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +64%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c31…5f1bbacked Yes | 22c | 456$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.93 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a32…ae7bbacked Yes | 28c | 449.69$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.71 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97d9…9bd6backed Yes | 19c | 425.31$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.72 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 28c | 393.31$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 18c | 377.49$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.48 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c47…174bbacked Yes | 17c | 359.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | +162.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes | 17c | 356.76$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.65 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e09…c03abacked Yes | 52c | 355$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39b9…81e5backed Yes | 19c | 333.49$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.91 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e03…9c10backed Yes | 16c | 320.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccaa…9066backed Yes | 40c | 300.74$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.51 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0796…7d5cbacked Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x377c…4a10backed Yes | 50c | 291.79$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.07 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae1…7d48backed Yes | 9c | 284.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +110.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b53…1fe3backed Yes | 18c | 280$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…20d4backed Yes | 42c | 257.28$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.14 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 31c | 246.67$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.35 | 71 | 9.9%7 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2767…886abacked Yes | 13c | 239.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb25…3ce5backed Yes | 17c | 233.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7d…3bb1backed Yes | 11c | 230.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c88…6871backed No | 68c | 229.27$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.57 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x774f…ea29backed Yes | 10c | 226.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53f4…1837backed Yes | 18c | 221.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed No | 31c | 218.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.76 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +10.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x80d1…f6c4backed Yes | 71c | 211.98$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcad9…6299backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f63…471ebacked Yes | 20c | 197$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…37c8backed Yes | 17c | 165.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab1b…b851backed Yes | 38c | 164.91$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.06 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…d647backed Yes | 63c | 159.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4872…128fbacked Yes | 49c | 153.13$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3af…bbd7backed Yes | 33c | 152.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7b…b1a7backed Yes | 47c | 148.79$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.93 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b34…5055backed Yes | 24c | 146.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ba…97a1backed Yes | 33c | 146.55$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e5…dbc9backed Yes | 18c | 144.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30a6…791cbacked Yes | 19c | 131.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2c…ab14backed Yes | 16c | 130$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56e8…739fbacked Yes | 27c | 129.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 31c | 126$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…9499backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Nov 29-Dec 6?this page
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550 or more times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.