Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Nov 29-Dec 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ff43320c4533cf144333c3e24311cbe3aa3b5ff079e99254786ddb15d0642cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $143,266
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,340
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $143,266 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 7c | 15,222$1,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,107.99 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 9c | 14,226$1,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,302.97 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 8c | 9,500$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.19 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 10c | 5,627$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.98 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 10c | 5,158$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.93 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 3c | 4,701$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.41 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 11c | 4,575$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.84 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 5c | 4,359$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.23 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4345…77fabacked Yes | 14c | 3,340$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.74 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…b528backed Yes | 5c | 2,950$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe61e…e2c2backed Yes | 15c | 2,241$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 2,194$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.94 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…4fc9backed Yes | 14c | 1,957$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.89 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe85b…ab6bbacked Yes | 16c | 1,849$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…2ce1backed Yes | 5c | 1,831$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6c…9047backed Yes | 15c | 1,711$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.84 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x990b…c30ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,363$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.68 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d43…e2a0backed Yes | 6c | 1,295$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.71 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 12c | 1,266$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.79 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ee…9311backed Yes | 17c | 1,149$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab1b…b851backed Yes | 14c | 1,100$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 14c | 1,000$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 13c | 932.22$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.61 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 18c | 889.27$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 10c | 822.57$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.18 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16d6…c556backed Yes | 15c | 786.75$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.38 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76eb…525abacked Yes | 10c | 736.97$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.32 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x963d…7dd8backed Yes | 28c | 723.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 11c | 719.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.61 | 139 | 17.3%24 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 14c | 605.61$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.12 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2a…a436backed Yes | 20c | 600.08$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.92 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 3c | 577.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7b…b1a7backed Yes | 10c | 532.75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.79 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…ff74backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…e42abacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +64%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3e…3096backed No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…4f34backed Yes | 7c | 499.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7961…2da2backed Yes | 23c | 481.92$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.54 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…5acabacked Yes | 10c | 468.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.86 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c8…0b36backed Yes | 14c | 448.18$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.19 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 15c | 422.51$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked Yes | 11c | 420.55$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f14…b199backed Yes | 17c | 396.14$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.83 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +130.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e5…a482backed Yes | 12c | 380$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f63…471ebacked Yes | 15c | 374.71$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.92 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 9c | 355.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 102 | 24.5%25 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a32…ae7bbacked Yes | 9c | 350.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39b9…81e5backed Yes | 14c | 350$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0796…7d5cbacked Yes | 16c | 300$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b53…1fe3backed Yes | 17c | 295.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb25…3ce5backed Yes | 14c | 290.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…8508backed Yes | 17c | 288.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…d647backed Yes | 14c | 287.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…44f2backed Yes | 14c | 252.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce73…70a9backed Yes | 11c | 236.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -32%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b5…d48cbacked Yes | 18c | 219.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e09…c03abacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 14c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27fa…09dfbacked Yes | 16c | 190$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…a62dbacked Yes | 16c | 186.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c47…174bbacked Yes | 19c | 178.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | +162.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 13c | 175.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae5…155ebacked Yes | 14c | 171.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 7c | 166.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2767…886abacked Yes | 19c | 159.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56e8…739fbacked Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2c…ab14backed Yes | 17c | 130$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 16c | 126$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1152…931fbacked Yes | 22c | 124.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x774f…ea29backed Yes | 8c | 122$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa88e…8050backed Yes | 18c | 112.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…85fabacked Yes | 19c | 105.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71b3…6422backed Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4872…128fbacked Yes | 24c | 88.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e5…dbc9backed Yes | 19c | 83.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Nov 29-Dec 6?this page
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550 or more times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.