TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Warriors vs. Rockets

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Warriorsof Warriors, Rockets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,492,831
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,776,996

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,492,831 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 748 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe5fb…84b5backed Warriors50c258,524$129,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128,595.191782.4%14 W · 3 L+4.3wins+0.25per pick57cpaid+74.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc8ec…e8f1backed Warriors48c208,256$99,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108,350.924831.9%79 W · 169 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Rockets55c129,999$71,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71,299.6614052.1%73 W · 67 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5036…416bbacked Rockets0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10038845.9%178 W · 210 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Rockets50c96,543$48,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,359.291,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Rockets47c91,738$43,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,220.0146426.1%121 W · 343 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3196…146fbacked Rockets56c89,223$49,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,964.971936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Warriors44c79,258$34,874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,384.4828241.1%116 W · 166 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Rockets56c57,627$32,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,111.0547848.1%230 W · 248 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9a0…88eebacked Rockets51c49,903$25,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,37512938%49 W · 80 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Rockets26c38,632$9,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,964.131,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Rockets45c38,472$17,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,202.573,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f79…1608backed Rockets56c38,260$21,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,465.397447.3%35 W · 39 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d5d…8e9ebacked Rockets56c32,054$17,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,950.01837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-37.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d45…b661backed Rockets18c31,151$5,708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,708.4513731.4%43 W · 94 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ed…16f3backed Warriors71c28,450$20,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,246.092475%18 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+21%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Rockets28c28,423$8,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,003.6376850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06ee…ed7bbacked Warriors49c25,540$12,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,904.97933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-28.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b42…ae6ebacked Rockets56c24,691$13,824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,823.5713636.8%50 W · 86 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Rockets32c24,645$7,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,992.811,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd44c…ab91backed Warriors69c22,818$15,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,045.7828347.7%135 W · 148 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3862…38a0backed Rockets45c21,996$9,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,898.07540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Warriors45c21,307$9,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,800.2828341.7%118 W · 165 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Warriors44c20,385$8,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,415.4310926.6%29 W · 80 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-26.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6d9…2d2ebacked Warriors45c19,971$8,987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,984.053426.5%9 W · 25 L-3.8wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-51.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9716…378abacked Rockets55c19,788$10,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,883.4419149.7%95 W · 96 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Rockets29c18,892$5,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,506.3648046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ecd…a578backed Warriors44c18,777$8,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,515.2123135.1%81 W · 150 L-11.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f66…8938backed Warriors45c17,438$7,847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,590.8726431.8%84 W · 180 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ce7…fd4abacked Warriors77c17,263$13,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,981.314057.9%81 W · 59 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Warriors55c17,239$9,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,757.7538143%164 W · 217 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Rockets53c17,130$9,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,047.8229957.2%171 W · 128 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a61…5781backed Warriors45c17,054$7,674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,379.743666.7%24 W · 12 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+19.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa8f2…5495backed Rockets55c14,255$7,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,8005536.4%20 W · 35 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7678…102ebacked Rockets56c14,000$7,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,8401266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb22a…f94abacked Warriors44c13,960$6,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,817.581338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Warriors43c13,928$6,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,875.4896447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Rockets29c13,165$3,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,865.4737734%128 W · 249 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Warriors49c13,041$6,398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,642.9614434%49 W · 95 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0b7e…ce6dbacked Rockets54c12,400$6,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,691.133644.4%16 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Rockets32c12,047$3,907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,907.4870640.8%288 W · 418 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ce…bca1backed Warriors44c12,045$5,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,745.4534747%163 W · 184 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Rockets57c11,427$6,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,483.8120756%116 W · 91 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ba…d879backed Warriors77c11,123$8,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,510.88333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick70cpaid-56.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5093…272cbacked Rockets0c10,500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-77.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Rockets23c10,000$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,30080146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked Rockets12c9,675$1,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,158.1118518.4%34 W · 151 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3aad…4e00backed Rockets57c9,386$5,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,3501947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-25.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee03…3eeabacked Rockets52c9,146$4,722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,721.764854.2%26 W · 22 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+6.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9997…af3bbacked Warriors78c8,859$6,954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,904.838259.8%49 W · 33 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9c4…ab5fbacked Warriors45c8,636$3,886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,749.85250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Rockets9c8,450$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.3934425.6%88 W · 256 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19b8…9c8ebacked Rockets3c8,183$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23238027.1%103 W · 277 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Rockets0c8,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.43350%0 W · 335 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x318a…360bbacked Warriors77c7,770$6,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,759.063767.6%25 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2791…2f45backed Warriors43c7,752$3,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,418.75650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x747f…bbbdbacked Rockets23c6,890$1,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,584.7425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d90…3259backed Warriors46c6,482$2,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,485.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+116.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Rockets48c6,258$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.9947542.3%201 W · 274 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99cf…a86abacked Rockets35c6,196$2,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,170.4214034.3%48 W · 92 L-8.7wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Warriors52c6,025$3,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,863.7722457.1%128 W · 96 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd9e…4348backed Rockets57c5,426$3,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,092.82333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a75…4347backed Rockets35c5,294$1,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,872.8913248.5%64 W · 68 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Rockets46c5,000$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3001,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Warriors44c5,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,799.9949849.4%246 W · 252 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f0b…eb6dbacked Rockets55c5,000$2,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,749.9822137.6%83 W · 138 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9e8…c443backed Warriors77c5,000$3,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,172.864953.1%26 W · 23 L-8.4wins-0.17per pick70cpaid-25.3%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xde97…e43ebacked Warriors45c4,897$2,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,693.235843.1%25 W · 33 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f9a…06d0backed Rockets57c4,861$2,749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,749.45261.5%32 W · 20 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xabe9…8826backed Warriors44c4,738$2,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,653.184143.9%18 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf2…c73bbacked Rockets56c4,700$2,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,631.741442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41ba…dfbbbacked Warriors44c4,545$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,545.454465.9%29 W · 15 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+17.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Rockets54c4,540$2,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,458.711,45149.7%721 W · 730 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8aa…ae12backed Warriors44c4,496$1,978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,517.767829.5%23 W · 55 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x264c…8250backed Rockets56c4,404$2,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,466.524261.9%26 W · 16 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+32.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Warriors44c4,376$1,913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,463.0727840.6%113 W · 165 L-22.5wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x920d…38adbacked Warriors45c4,302$1,936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,366.049849%48 W · 50 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+22.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e42…9003backed Rockets56c4,140$2,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,323.5210551.4%54 W · 51 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01f7…02dfbacked Warriors76c4,116$3,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987.95837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-48.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7320…28b4backed Warriors77c4,000$3,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92012657.1%72 W · 54 L+11.4wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x01c1…6038backed Warriors44c4,000$1,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,239.97683.3%5 W · 1 L+3.1wins+0.51per pick32cpaid+201.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Warriors43c4,000$1,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,279.941,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Rockets31c3,871$1,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,211.7325536.9%94 W · 161 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e47…a9a9backed Warriors57c3,849$2,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,651.4334852.3%182 W · 166 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd656…d127backed Rockets32c3,757$1,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,212.641346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Warriors44c3,720$1,637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,083.471,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Rockets5c3,537$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17167911%75 W · 604 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9602…4d02backed Rockets55c3,530$1,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,941.6812040.8%49 W · 71 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2ce…d0eebacked Rockets56c3,500$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9601656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf586…f614backed Warriors45c3,500$1,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9253243.8%14 W · 18 L-3.7wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-22.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2aa2…4d22backed Rockets56c3,445$1,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,916.4536057.5%207 W · 153 L-14.7wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Rockets13c3,331$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.367929.1%23 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Rockets49c3,246$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60027546.2%127 W · 148 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4b9…0313backed Rockets57c3,184$1,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,814.61241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-27.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Rockets23c3,086$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.5853134.7%184 W · 347 L-11.7wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Warriors78c3,000$2,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa647…64eebacked Rockets35c3,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05019350.3%97 W · 96 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Rockets56c3,000$1,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,675.91,16449.6%577 W · 587 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed Warriors44c2,839$1,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,589.915349.1%26 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53fb…ba30backed Rockets56c2,820$1,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,579.391050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.