Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Dec 6-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d7e75600bac9304136848e4e14f5edae1e9ae4bc655dfc4bc0ca76d670bd08e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $141,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ba2…4126backed Yes | 1c | 8,720$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 10c | 7,367$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.2 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 15c | 7,290$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.02 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 4c | 6,344$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.89 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe85b…ab6bbacked Yes | 2c | 5,752$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e4…f310backed Yes | 1c | 5,750$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 6c | 5,028$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.45 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 18c | 4,080$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.89 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,789$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed87…3686backed Yes | 6c | 2,479$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 1,979$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.54 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76eb…525abacked Yes | 13c | 1,520$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b53…1fe3backed Yes | 21c | 1,204$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 6c | 1,174$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.34 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 11c | 1,158$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.96 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…85fabacked Yes | 19c | 1,061$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.4 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 17c | 1,001$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.04 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0796…7d5cbacked Yes | 17c | 999.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4345…77fabacked Yes | 8c | 879.53$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.06 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf59…fefdbacked Yes | 6c | 749.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a03…2d6cbacked Yes | 5c | 718.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed Yes | 10c | 706.01$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.45 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 78c | 699.98$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.19 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…ff74backed Yes | 3c | 625.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…42a4backed Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 6c | 595.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 71 | 9.9%7 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…8508backed Yes | 20c | 551.02$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56e8…739fbacked Yes | 13c | 520.91$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.88 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…dd21backed Yes | 5c | 516.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 5c | 502.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 8c | 500$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc947…0e21backed Yes | 5c | 395.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 16c | 395.07$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…6842backed Yes | 6c | 337.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 15c | 334.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d0…1855backed Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccaa…9066backed Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a3…6b77backed Yes | 7c | 277.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5dc…0d98backed Yes | 7c | 277.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…20d4backed Yes | 23c | 260.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 6c | 250$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 13c | 249.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe38c…3ee7backed Yes | 17c | 231.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…e42abacked Yes | 13c | 230$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +64%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb057…f818backed Yes | 8c | 214.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…cae2backed Yes | 24c | 210.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x698a…971cbacked Yes | 10c | 201.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -86%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74c8…0b36backed Yes | 6c | 199.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 6c | 191.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16d6…c556backed Yes | 14c | 185$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3510…2238backed Yes | 17c | 180.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf501…d663backed Yes | 6c | 170$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a32…ae7bbacked Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 13c | 145.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf9…21f6backed Yes | 33c | 145.03$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x735f…536abacked Yes | 18c | 142.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 19c | 114.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3b…0423backed Yes | 18c | 113.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…9499backed Yes | 18c | 110.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0daa…d05abacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed No | 61c | 95.38$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 15c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5822…5592backed Yes | 26c | 77.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…b172backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…8df5backed Yes | 25c | 45.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Dec 6-13?this page
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 6-13?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Dec 6-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.