TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Will Arsenal vs. Manchester City end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$108,295
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$129,335

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,295 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes31c7,080$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,880.2917234.3%59 W · 113 L+0.5wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d3b…4253backed No9c6,551$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.63166.3%1 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+108.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd35e…3a85backed Yes25c6,002$1,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,501.5944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+31.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked No73c5,000$3,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,65035652.8%188 W · 168 L+15.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked No68c4,338$2,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,949.6379650.8%404 W · 392 L+28.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed No60c4,220$2,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,548.4551542.5%219 W · 296 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9093…b928backed Yes25c4,002$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,001.49955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+47%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b7…d0d0backed No75c4,001$3,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Yes26c3,592$934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,658.319636.5%35 W · 61 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3261…da8cbacked No75c3,333$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,499.9220%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No31c3,147$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975.194,74441.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L+28.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed No75c3,117$2,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,337.8620039.5%79 W · 121 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed No51c2,946$1,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,487.6328736.2%104 W · 183 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes25c2,808$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,100.246,11745.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L-28.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x60f5…d984backed No75c2,665$1,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,998.7520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No40c2,193$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.1167042.2%283 W · 387 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed No74c2,007$1,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,485.1814544.8%65 W · 80 L-11.4wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-20.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked No74c1,970$1,456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,456.1417958.1%104 W · 75 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed No74c1,969$1,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,457.2290751.3%465 W · 442 L-1.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda91…6cc9backed Yes28c1,949$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,403.22445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+38.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1256…fc6cbacked Yes25c1,600$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2005232.7%17 W · 35 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Yes25c1,580$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,184.8638649%189 W · 197 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Yes27c1,521$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,117.259450%47 W · 47 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed No68c1,491$1,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,018.7646651.9%242 W · 224 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes27c1,156$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843.227235.7%97 W · 175 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No36c1,149$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.6461441.2%253 W · 361 L-27.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-19.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a4c…6579backed No37c1,100$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4114235.7%15 W · 27 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa270…42c9backed Yes26c1,000$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7404334.9%15 W · 28 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdda3…b20cbacked Yes29c965.72$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$685.663941%16 W · 23 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d06…d48ebacked Yes26c961.54$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.541060%6 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+68.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd9fe…ad85backed Yes26c961.54$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.5418740.6%76 W · 111 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ddc…f21cbacked Yes25c827.69$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.696747.8%32 W · 35 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed No69c800.93$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.6410357.3%59 W · 44 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb90c…9a6abacked Yes26c769.23$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.235246.2%24 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed No68c690$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.220744%91 W · 116 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7aba…7442backed Yes29c682.93$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.0312545.6%57 W · 68 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1464…c83fbacked Yes29c666$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.061127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0709…f2edbacked Yes28c632.14$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.141060%6 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+88.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed No71c575.74$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.8435758%207 W · 150 L+12.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f37…1edcbacked Yes26c568.31$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.315637.5%21 W · 35 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc668…e830backed Yes27c558.05$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.05825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a4a…14d2backed Yes71c516.49$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.743860.5%23 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6006…cae5backed Yes31c500$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.031060%6 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+48.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc88e…f3e1backed Yes27c499.99$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.992817.9%5 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-50.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No78c476.44$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.623718.9%7 W · 30 L-7.0wins-0.19per pick38cpaid-63.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes26c412$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.168942.2%291 W · 398 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x056a…611fbacked Yes25c400$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3007638.2%29 W · 47 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd66f…a19bbacked No73c390$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.1242043.8%184 W · 236 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xece7…6979backed Yes26c384.62$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.621963.2%12 W · 7 L+3.5wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+59.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xead8…517abacked Yes26c384.62$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.62616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes26c384.62$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.625633.9%19 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f09…7884backed Yes27c370.37$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc7b…2642backed Yes27c367.32$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+83.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2db…31cabacked Yes28c357.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.143336.4%12 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid+15.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ba1…6fa7backed No74c351.36$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes24c345.31$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.4319735.5%70 W · 127 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe4d…912bbacked Yes26c345$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.3742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3fe…4a24backed Yes30c333$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.111241.1%46 W · 66 L-10.4wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-17.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x27db…5897backed Yes26c312$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.88742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid+11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9920…8f8ebacked Yes33c303.18$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.18825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-33.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x230b…d3d6backed No75c300$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225520%1 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.45per pick65cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x199a…f436backed Yes25c300$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+40.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7272…7135backed Yes28c300$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2172857.1%16 W · 12 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+23.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7d24…a93fbacked No70c285$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.522764.8%147 W · 80 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Yes25c260$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1953060%18 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick63cpaid+2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb29f…1ab6backed Yes32c257.56$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.141030%3 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked No73c257$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.611,14642.8%490 W · 656 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbda7…fc55backed Yes28c250.14$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.32785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.25per pick60cpaid+60.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8406…0176backed Yes26c246$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.042867.9%19 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+33%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x83c5…e193backed Yes25c233.33$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.1615726.8%42 W · 115 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa3c…a6a3backed Yes28c214.64$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.64333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid+19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf163…7e09backed Yes25c200$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ce…316ebacked Yes22c200$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1562433.3%8 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid+1.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Yes25c200$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15044036.8%162 W · 278 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0909…91cabacked Yes28c196.43$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.436956.5%39 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1166…a8e1backed Yes26c192.31$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.319736.1%35 W · 62 L-4.9wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b8d…f78abacked Yes27c185.19$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.19250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf42a…8470backed Yes28c178.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.5727024.8%67 W · 203 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x350e…6539backed Yes26c176.92$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.923336.4%12 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-26.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2453…28e2backed Yes28c176.48$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.4825637.9%97 W · 159 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf750…4abbbacked Yes29c174.48$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.483345.5%15 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x114a…ced9backed Yes29c171.66$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.88633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+24.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked No59c165.09$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.5241344.8%185 W · 228 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x620b…c1e6backed Yes31c161.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba72…143bbacked Yes31c161.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.292147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xffe9…395abacked Yes33c161.21$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.06728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-29.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab7e…9e98backed No75c150$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.51060%6 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+19.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa13…f778backed Yes26c150$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+39%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7096…11c0backed Yes27c150$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.52040%8 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes28c142.86$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.8618841.5%78 W · 110 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61c1…0513backed Yes29c138.1$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.12454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+20%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x344d…1278backed No75c133.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-30.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x42e1…aaaabacked Yes27c130.76$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.76933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb12b…f1dabacked Yes31c127.01$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.011030%3 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick22cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa26e…d280backed Yes32c125$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8510031%31 W · 69 L-8.4wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-12%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbbe8…0fedbacked No72c123.12$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.9725545.5%116 W · 139 L-18.1wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-21.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x88ca…5679backed Yes31c119.35$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.35250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd938…f16bbacked No73c118.38$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.42333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-52%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Yes68c113.66$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.631,16357.4%667 W · 496 L+40.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes27c111.11$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.1129146%134 W · 157 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.