Bundesliga · resolved market
SC Freiburg vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf478db6fcbb0e7f2b04796944da5ed4539ad50b3715903e04d1e014c9786a1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c3a…8679backed Over | 76c | 24,035$18,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,885.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 24c | 13,933$3,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,343.9 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 28c | 7,065$1,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,944.37 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…9124backed Under | 4c | 3,831$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.94 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 27c | 3,219$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.54 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Under | 24c | 3,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…6711backed Over | 63c | 1,570$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.63 | 49 | 75.5%37 W · 12 L | +8.2wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 26c | 1,500$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 75c | 800$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Under | 8c | 774.56$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.6 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Under | 23c | 600$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa0…fbbdbacked Under | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked Over | 77c | 499.99$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 80c | 439.89$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.83 | 110 | 65.5%72 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 66c | 424.5$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.33 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 38c | 324.66$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.97 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 78c | 320.51$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.51 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 78c | 270.9$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 63 | 66.7%42 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 29c | 230.17$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.03 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Over | 78c | 194.46$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07ce…75e0backed Over | 75c | 180$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…f2f7backed Over | 75c | 140$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 76cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed Over | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…72dbbacked Over | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Under | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ef…c56bbacked Over | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b3…0476backed Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 49cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Over | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 36 | 88.9%32 W · 4 L | +8.1wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Over | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 108 | 63%68 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 54c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef1…8ec6backed Over | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbf…98b6backed Over | 75c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90a3…1701backed Over | 74c | 27.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59f1…6710backed Over | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 76cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x377c…4a10backed Over | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Over | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bed…6b26backed Over | 77c | 14.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 80c | 13.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.74 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x08de…a0fdbacked Over | 78c | 13.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Freiburg vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 1.5this page
- SC Freiburg vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SC Freiburg vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5Under won
- SC Freiburg vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5)SC Freiburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.