TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x90a3…1701

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
92
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Champions League, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 56 out of 100; worst Serie A at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT2958.6%17 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Belgium win on 2026-03-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Egypt vs. Spain: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+100%+$26.22
Will Netherlands win on 2026-03-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Netherlands vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Russia vs. Mali: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Germany vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$7.03
Germany vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.26
Cyprus vs. Moldova: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$9.67
Will France win on 2026-03-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+100%+$20
Colombia vs. France: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$8.17
Colombia vs. France: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$12.79
Lithuania vs. Georgia: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+37%+$9.82
Armenia vs. Belarus: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$8.57
Mexico vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$35.1
Scotland vs. Japan: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Senegal win on 2026-03-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$7.06
Canada vs. Iceland: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$5.97
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+30.6%+$7.16
Netherlands vs. Norway: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.65
Russia vs. Nicaragua: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.93
Russia vs. Nicaragua: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+30.9%+$20.22
Will Poland win on 2026-03-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$10.42
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$7.39
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT1346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Deportivo Alavés vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+37%+$12.8
Real Oviedo vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.76
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-04-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.76
Will Real Valladolid CF win on 2026-03-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.54
Real Madrid CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$8.65
Real Madrid CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$11.35
Real Madrid CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$12.27
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-03-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+100%+$19.6
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-01-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+163.2%+$24.47
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-01-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$14.8
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-12-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$30.39
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$16.66
All 13 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT1233.3%4 W · 8 L-3.2wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-46.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
Serie A — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SSC Napoli vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.59
Juventus FC vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.92
Udinese Calcio vs. Como 1907: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.05
FC Internazionale Milano vs. AS Roma: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+27.4%+$16.24
AS Roma vs. US Lecce: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.84
Will SS Lazio win on 2025-12-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$10.07
Bologna FC 1909 vs. Juventus FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Genoa CFC vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+40%+$10.02
Will Torino FC win on 2025-12-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST+100.8%+$11.08
Will SS Lazio win on 2025-12-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$10.02
Will SS Lazio win on 2025-11-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+78.6%+$15.71
All 12 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bruins vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.04
KHL: Torpedo vs. Severstal Cherepovetsbacked Torpedo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+93.6%+$15.26
KHL: Ak Bars Kazan vs. Traktorbacked Ak Bars Kazan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$12.78
KHL: CSKA Moscow vs. SKA St. Petersburgbacked CSKA Moscow · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$12.79
Capitals vs. Bluesbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.44
KHL: Lokomotiv Yaroslavl vs. Torpedobacked Lokomotiv Yaroslavl · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$10.46
Golden Knights vs. Rangersbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+66.7%+$7.51
Blue Jackets vs. Capitalsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+56.3%+$5.63
KHL: SKA St. Petersburg vs. Amur Khabarovskbacked SKA St. Petersburg · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$14.11
All 9 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick66cpaid-38.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Premier League — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.35per pick45cpaid+79%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Champions League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+60.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$11.79
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2025-12-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$11.31
All 2 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SC Braga vs. FC Porto: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$6.89
NAC Breda vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$15
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$27.87
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the US next strike Iran on January 31, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 7, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bulls vs. Pistons: O/U 228.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.