Fifa International · resolved market
Russia vs. Mali: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ce2680e68f4380852d11695d199f28a45b4eaafd8964e321eb21451a01f4d0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,191
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,276
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,191 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 1,625$1,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.12 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc95b…f819backed Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7e…c230backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 80 | 32.5%26 W · 54 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 50c | 499.02$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -8.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -32%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 34c | 455.91$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.62 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 51c | 444.87$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.22 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd586…7c9bbacked Under | 51c | 388.39$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.39 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 25c | 378.95$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.74 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 22c | 231.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 51c | 217.57$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.71 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…2fbfbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 43c | 199.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 159 | 45.3%72 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 53c | 130.7$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.12 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cc…9144backed Over | 51c | 118.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 235 | 44.7%105 W · 130 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 50c | 105.53$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 20c | 100.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 34c | 95.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 637 | 45.4%289 W · 348 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90a3…1701backed Over | 50c | 80.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa295…98bcbacked Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 39c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Over | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 49c | 39.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 831 | 53.3%443 W · 388 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43a4…7170backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 363 | 29.8%108 W · 255 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb15c…c161backed Over | 50c | 29.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc253…5800backed Over | 53c | 28.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 823 | 40.9%337 W · 486 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…6427backed Over | 48c | 23.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d1…4cb7backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Russia vs. Mali: O/U 2.5this page
- Russia vs. Mali: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Russia vs. Mali: O/U 1.5Under won
- Russia vs. Mali: O/U 3.5Under won
- Russia vs. Mali: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Mali (-1.5)Russia won
- Spread: Mali (-2.5)Russia won
- Spread: Russia (-1.5)Mali won
- Spread: Russia (-2.5)Mali won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.