Fifa International · resolved market
Russia vs. Mali: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x396f9b495641c45668b53c7658a878a4551845f2379827074349694471e0ae68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,129
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,129 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…d4bfbacked Over | 60c | 1,666$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.6 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9762…73fbbacked Over | 73c | 1,370$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 1,297$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.63 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 43c | 1,126$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.42 | 831 | 53.3%443 W · 388 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…b624backed Over | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…e1cabacked Over | 45c | 817.06$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.09 | 175 | 44%77 W · 98 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 32c | 658.78$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 41c | 623$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.98 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…b43fbacked Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 27c | 464$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.72 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +7.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 28c | 375.19$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.14 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 27c | 349.94$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.29 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 73c | 300$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 368 | 50.3%185 W · 183 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 40c | 298.43$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.06 | 1,559 | 52.4%817 W · 742 L | +97.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 39c | 287.4$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.52 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Under | 28c | 256.49$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.67 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 25c | 214.77$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.08 | 407 | 36.6%149 W · 258 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 159 | 45.3%72 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe12b…a340backed Over | 45c | 178.8$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Under | 50c | 157.3$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.65 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 50c | 147.5$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.75 | 864 | 55.3%478 W · 386 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x782c…0faabacked Under | 67c | 134.33$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Over | 62c | 128.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.97 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb253…26febacked Under | 38c | 125.63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.89 | 135 | 48.1%65 W · 70 L | -9.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Under | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e8…5e6bbacked Over | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 50c | 94.8$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 508 | 50%254 W · 254 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d12…cc43backed Over | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…6f08backed Over | 75c | 68.23$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 224 | 66.1%148 W · 76 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x400e…374bbacked Over | 44c | 67.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 340 | 56.5%192 W · 148 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 44c | 45.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Under | 42c | 45.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 39c | 43.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 363 | 29.8%108 W · 255 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…c7acbacked Over | 72c | 40.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 64 | 71.9%46 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…67bebacked Over | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 40c | 31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 374 | 58.8%220 W · 154 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cc…2e39backed Over | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 102 | 65.7%67 W · 35 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…7a37backed Over | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 117 | 75.2%88 W · 29 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Russia vs. Mali: O/U 1.5this page
- Russia vs. Mali: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Russia vs. Mali: O/U 2.5Under won
- Russia vs. Mali: O/U 3.5Under won
- Russia vs. Mali: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Mali (-1.5)Russia won
- Spread: Mali (-2.5)Russia won
- Spread: Russia (-1.5)Mali won
- Spread: Russia (-2.5)Mali won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.