Serie A · resolved market

Bologna FC 1909 vs. Juventus FC: O/U 1.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6ad5155b95f733740a743ed149743fa6ad6f6512d6abf5f1e3cb68d510980dc

Rebuilt 43 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 14, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $11,002
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $11,066

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,002 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Serie A
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under	47c	3,013$1,427 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,586.11	2,538	45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L	+13.8wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x021a…56cbbacked Over	56c	1,442$808 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$807.62	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.13per pick	25cpaid	+108.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under	37c	1,062$390 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$672.47	969	42.3%410 W · 559 L	-13.0wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x700f…62d8backed Over	47c	1,026$482 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$482	91	54.9%50 W · 41 L	+8.0wins	+0.09per pick	46cpaid	+27.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	54c	555.39$298 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$257.89	932	52%485 W · 447 L	+11.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…db98backed Over	43c	466$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.38	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	+2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	27c	433.63$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.72	1,981	39.8%788 W · 1,193 L	-7.5wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6619…703ebacked Over	74c	405.41$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	74	64.9%48 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	66cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8a3…a380backed Under	26c	215$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$159.1	17	70.6%12 W · 5 L	+3.6wins	+0.21per pick	50cpaid	+50.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Over	37c	200$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73	156	23.7%37 W · 119 L	+5.1wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x216f…9b1ebacked Under	26c	162$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.88	21	61.9%13 W · 8 L	+2.3wins	+0.11per pick	51cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3cf3…50d9backed Over	67c	143.28$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	41	36.6%15 W · 26 L	-5.1wins	-0.13per pick	49cpaid	-34%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd0e7…3335backed Over	73c	136.99$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	103	61.2%63 W · 40 L	-7.3wins	-0.07per pick	68cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Under	27c	133$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.09	14	71.4%10 W · 4 L	+2.4wins	+0.17per pick	54cpaid	+50.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe48c…163abacked Over	46c	129.02$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.35	156	48.7%76 W · 80 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb4f9…5526backed Under	28c	127$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.44	17	76.5%13 W · 4 L	+4.0wins	+0.23per pick	53cpaid	+46%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4aff…c91bbacked Under	35c	123$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.95	21	66.7%14 W · 7 L	+1.2wins	+0.06per pick	61cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12f7…ff1fbacked Over	46c	110$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.38	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-3.1wins	-0.22per pick	30cpaid	-85.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0dba…cb27backed Over	47c	106.66$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.13	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x884d…1da6backed Over	70c	99.99$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-3.0wins	-0.23per pick	62cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xba36…52d0backed Under	26c	97$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.78	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	-1.8wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc32e…203dbacked Over	73c	94.52$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	34	58.8%20 W · 14 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	60cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2d7…a36dbacked Under	55c	90.91$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.91	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc880…a622backed Under	28c	89$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.08	22	72.7%16 W · 6 L	+4.7wins	+0.22per pick	51cpaid	+74.3%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd8b2…c24ebacked Over	45c	88.89$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	80	65%52 W · 28 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	61cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeee2…035dbacked Over	48c	83.48$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	54	50%27 W · 27 L	+6.1wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+35.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f91…20ccbacked Under	54c	66$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.36	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-2.5wins	-0.14per pick	53cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfc87…d938backed Over	56c	62.82$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.18	51	56.9%29 W · 22 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	52c	60$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.67	527	48%253 W · 274 L	-35.4wins	-0.07per pick	55cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x480a…e3c9backed Over	74c	59$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.66	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.5wins	-0.18per pick	56cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd411…e342backed Over	74c	58$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.92	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	56cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30ee…5d12backed Over	74c	57$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.18	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.22per pick	62cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ca0…7ebebacked Under	26c	55$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.7	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4889…9b17backed Over	65c	55$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.75	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.4wins	-0.17per pick	55cpaid	-46.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x380c…1099backed Over	73c	54.79$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	152	53.9%82 W · 70 L	-14.7wins	-0.10per pick	64cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa3f3…9b44backed Over	37c	54.03$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.99	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f3a…9bdbbacked Over	72c	53$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.16	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	60cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc86f…341dbacked Over	74c	53$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.22	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.9wins	-0.23per pick	61cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x423d…c621backed Over	40c	50$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over	54c	50$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.2	68	42.6%29 W · 39 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe105…8a2dbacked Over	74c	48$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.52	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Over	69c	44.59$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.8	155	50.3%78 W · 77 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0645…6fd6backed Over	46c	43.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.46per pick	46cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x95c4…a93bbacked Over	72c	42$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.24	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.8wins	-0.44per pick	69cpaid	-55.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc3b3…0d89backed Over	73c	41$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.93	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc427…ee41backed Under	27c	40$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.2	14	71.4%10 W · 4 L	+2.3wins	+0.16per pick	55cpaid	+35.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over	58c	39.66$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	345	53.9%186 W · 159 L	+7.0wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc61d…ca38backed Over	74c	39$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.86	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.25per pick	75cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e48…c958backed Over	72c	38$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.36	10	60%6 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	66cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce96…ff5cbacked Over	73c	37$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.01	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda03…7f8cbacked Over	73c	35$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.55	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+37%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3880…ab7dbacked Over	73c	34.25$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	170	58.2%99 W · 71 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x96ae…89d9backed Over	74c	34$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.16	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x373a…668abacked Over	74c	33$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.42	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	58cpaid	+25.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2116…d3c2backed Over	47c	32.02$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6fa4…b6a4backed Over	65c	32$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.8	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60a6…7ed2backed Over	74c	32$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.68	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	59cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa354…b85fbacked Over	60c	31.14$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.68	88	63.6%56 W · 32 L	+16.1wins	+0.18per pick	45cpaid	+41.4%equal weight	66+0.14 edge/pick
0x58ca…0672backed Under	40c	31.14$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.68	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x143d…5bc4backed Over	74c	31$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.94	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-1.9wins	-0.13per pick	56cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2953…2ed5backed Over	74c	30$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.2	11	90.9%10 W · 1 L	+3.1wins	+0.28per pick	63cpaid	+49.8%equal weight	59+0.09 edge/pick
0x59f1…6710backed Over	67c	30$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.1	15	73.3%11 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	73cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90a3…1701backed Over	50c	29.83$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-3.2wins	-0.27per pick	60cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5f96…92e0backed Over	65c	28$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.2	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.17per pick	57cpaid	-37%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f85…5013backed Over	72c	27.78$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.72per pick	72cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e2a…14afbacked Over	72c	27.78$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.72per pick	72cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49c4…bf77backed Over	75c	26.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	137	52.6%72 W · 65 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x380c…9ffabacked Over	75c	26.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	78cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d3b…bd9fbacked Over	74c	26$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.24	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.28per pick	62cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3ae…5833backed Over	40c	25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.9wins	+0.09per pick	21cpaid	+46%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd323…64acbacked Over	48c	24.06$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.55	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9255…87a4backed Over	74c	24$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.76	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.7wins	-0.42per pick	67cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x66f7…2894backed Over	73c	20$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.6	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	+31.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x1e85…d253backed Over	74c	19$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.06	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-2.6wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9cf9…142bbacked Over	72c	18$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.96	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-2.7wins	-0.33per pick	58cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x87c8…2cb0backed Over	72c	15$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-2.8wins	-0.39per pick	54cpaid	-72%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdc55…9f7cbacked Over	74c	15$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.1	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-2.4wins	-0.48per pick	68cpaid	-60.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa029…c912backed Over	74c	15$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.1	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	56cpaid	+18.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60dc…9a3ebacked Over	72c	15$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	62cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15b7…7fd0backed Over	72c	14$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-1.5wins	-0.13per pick	59cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0fec…8dc3backed Over	74c	14$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.36	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	-28%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Bologna FC 1909 vs. Juventus FC: O/U 1.5this page
Bologna FC 1909 vs. Juventus FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Bologna FC 1909 vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5Under won
Bologna FC 1909 vs. Juventus FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5)Bologna FC 1909 won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Bologna FC 1909 vs. Juventus FC: O/U 1.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event