Serie A · resolved market
Bologna FC 1909 vs. Juventus FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc457574b87349a8322409c6dfaccfc914d8fbf9145486523161ea268267bbe1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,543
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,520
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,543 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 76c | 4,688$3,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,112.27 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 21c | 3,823$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.61 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa645…0be6backed Over | 26c | 2,608$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.95 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1842…b628backed Under | 77c | 2,518$1,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.67 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 25c | 1,500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.94 | 366 | 30.9%113 W · 253 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 78c | 1,370$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.79 | 26 | 88.5%23 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 74cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 23c | 398.75$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.71 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Over | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 114 | 29.8%34 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 22c | 381.11$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.83 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 314 | 41.4%130 W · 184 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…ff1fbacked Over | 7c | 144$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 30cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Under | 74c | 141$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Under | 76c | 131.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Under | 74c | 111$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Over | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Under | 73c | 84$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbab8…bdf6backed Under | 79c | 75.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d2…e5f5backed Over | 26c | 58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.42per pick | 59cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Under | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 152 | 53.9%82 W · 70 L | -14.7wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…0b4ebacked Under | 74c | 51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb780…e7a2backed Over | 26c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…921dbacked Under | 74c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 171 | 42.7%73 W · 98 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…f244backed Under | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2342…d7cebacked Over | 27c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked Under | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eda…1847backed Under | 76c | 20.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…22c4backed Under | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 50 | 78%39 W · 11 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Juventus FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Juventus FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Juventus FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5)Bologna FC 1909 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.