Fifa International · resolved market
Russia vs. Nicaragua: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc412d2715138e6525f84c20c1336c7298ce0249a146a3210eef8d7ab6cbc3ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb196…bedabacked Under | 47c | 1,165$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 444.25$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.73 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 49c | 419.71$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.26 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 51c | 234.29$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.36 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8d…a19bbacked Under | 49c | 232.16$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.4 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c0…dadabacked Under | 56c | 212.43$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.43 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…8cb5backed Over | 53c | 209.42$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…b8e3backed Under | 55c | 155.38$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.29 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…82d1backed Under | 66c | 150.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 363 | 29.8%108 W · 255 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…b968backed Under | 51c | 97.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 323 | 56%181 W · 142 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Over | 65c | 92.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 188 | 22.3%42 W · 146 L | -16.3wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 54c | 56.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 864 | 55.3%478 W · 386 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Under | 72c | 55.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 403 | 55.3%223 W · 180 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 48c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 465 | 36.1%168 W · 297 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Over | 23c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Under | 77c | 52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fa…b168backed Over | 64c | 51.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Over | 54c | 50.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 237 | 49.8%118 W · 119 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Over | 54c | 50.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 246 | 53.3%131 W · 115 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 54c | 50.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 508 | 50%254 W · 254 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 61c | 39.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 218 | 46.8%102 W · 116 L | +19.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 61c | 38.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 1,559 | 52.4%817 W · 742 L | +97.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x797e…fc29backed Over | 60c | 33.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…22d0backed Under | 62c | 27.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 291 | 54%157 W · 134 L | +21.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Over | 61c | 24.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 51c | 24.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 387 | 45%174 W · 213 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a3…1701backed Over | 68c | 21.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Russia vs. Nicaragua: O/U 4.5this page
- Russia vs. Nicaragua: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Russia vs. Nicaragua: O/U 1.5Over won
- Russia vs. Nicaragua: O/U 2.5Over won
- Russia vs. Nicaragua: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Russia (-1.5)Russia won
- Spread: Russia (-2.5)Nicaragua won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.