Fifa International · resolved market
Russia vs. Nicaragua: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7dc5b6040a53cafad68b530cb5584d0ff0466d0ea58d7cb413ed1c35ac8d802
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,273
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,671
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,273 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe24f…0c5abacked Over | 54c | 1,268$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…cb64backed Under | 46c | 1,268$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.28 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Over | 58c | 461.72$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.6 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 77c | 326.8$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.75 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +8.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 21c | 265.83$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.09 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 43c | 172$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 465 | 36.1%168 W · 297 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9597…1c14backed Over | 70c | 141.98$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked Under | 47c | 128$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.16 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Over | 80c | 120$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08f0…2000backed Over | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 42c | 88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 328 | 55.8%183 W · 145 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 47c | 85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c67…e838backed Under | 29c | 80.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 74c | 73.71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e07…6a8ebacked Over | 58c | 69.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 64cpaid | +49%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Under | 47c | 64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Under | 47c | 64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Under | 47c | 64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc711…d3c6backed Over | 53c | 50.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 72c | 49.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc820…5ab5backed Over | 59c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Over | 58c | 35.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf09b…5971backed Over | 57c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…642dbacked Under | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Russia vs. Nicaragua: O/U 3.5this page
- Russia vs. Nicaragua: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Russia vs. Nicaragua: O/U 1.5Over won
- Russia vs. Nicaragua: O/U 2.5Over won
- Russia vs. Nicaragua: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Russia (-1.5)Russia won
- Spread: Russia (-2.5)Nicaragua won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.