TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2025-12-13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$224,408
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$278,123

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $224,408 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 255 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x18d1…dbcbbacked Yes57c21,981$12,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,480.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked No43c18,188$7,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,886.517062.9%44 W · 26 L+8.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes57c13,600$7,814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,785.7115134.4%52 W · 99 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x80cf…427dbacked Yes56c13,350$7,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,91310445.2%47 W · 57 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes57c10,632$6,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,611.5433945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x997e…9f11backed No46c10,624$4,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,88710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48fe…b2b6backed Yes57c10,000$5,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,3003855.3%21 W · 17 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7087…c61fbacked No44c8,000$3,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5202441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No46c7,427$3,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,433.175142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No37c7,122$2,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,629.092,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes77c6,571$5,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,486.13,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No43c5,925$2,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,525.8253645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Yes51c5,000$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4503953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked No40c5,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.975052%26 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa25…05e8backed No42c4,718$1,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,981.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x011c…31dfbacked No45c4,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,799.981330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-37.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked No44c3,219$1,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,412.278248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed No43c2,298$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.56459.4%38 W · 26 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Yes48c2,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0403357.6%19 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Yes49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,02015847.5%75 W · 83 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Yes57c1,802$1,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.253063.3%19 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9ed…8836backed Yes60c1,667$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Yes54c1,617$873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743.877447.3%35 W · 39 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes55c1,503$827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.321216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-65%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed No46c1,412$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.6619544.6%87 W · 108 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8224…e28abacked No43c1,163$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe930…b44dbacked Yes49c1,020$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.413537.1%13 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes57c1,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4304544.4%20 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed No43c944.44$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40522747.1%107 W · 120 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0caf…abfebacked Yes54c918.62$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.621656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Yes55c909.09$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.094264.3%27 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes57c893.91$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.469851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fd0…eb9dbacked No46c871$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.66333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed No32c860.47$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.785444.4%24 W · 30 L-5.5wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-23.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x700f…62d8backed Yes58c689.66$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.666262.9%39 W · 23 L+8.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+31%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed No46c670.6$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.7551136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e84…d31cbacked Yes60c608.57$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.43366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa85…1890backed Yes64c604.85$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.68250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ba4…c08bbacked Yes55c600$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2705635.7%20 W · 36 L-6.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-25.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x83c1…32f7backed Yes55c529.09$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.091936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-1.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10d0…7b84backed Yes43c511.63$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.63771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.34per pick38cpaid+82.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd3d3…bb8ebacked Yes61c493.28$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.285851.7%30 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61b2…d3c9backed Yes57c488.51$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.061580%12 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+37.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc8b4…1081backed Yes52c481.93$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.935100%5 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+88.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x87ea…f625backed No41c441.98$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.032326.1%6 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.14per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ebb…061abacked Yes61c426.23$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.238363.9%53 W · 30 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Yes55c406.67$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.728459.5%50 W · 34 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No43c404$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.7224258.7%142 W · 100 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked No44c400$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1768251.2%42 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed No43c399.99$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17412162.8%76 W · 45 L+15.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+24.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No31c378.99$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.1416542.4%70 W · 95 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c6a…9717backed Yes59c377.98$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.641566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed No43c372$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.968261%50 W · 32 L+8.5wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked No43c372$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.968461.9%52 W · 32 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed No43c372$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.969659.4%57 W · 39 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6afd…5cb1backed No43c372$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.9611759.8%70 W · 47 L+10.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+18.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed No43c372$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.9612757.5%73 W · 54 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed No43c372$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.9613256.1%74 W · 58 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed No43c372$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.9612858.6%75 W · 53 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed No43c372$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.9625659.4%152 W · 104 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes61c363.93$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.9334547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes55c363.64$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.649951.5%51 W · 48 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes54c357.86$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.8620436.3%74 W · 130 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked No43c353$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.5411860.2%71 W · 47 L+7.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x96ec…fcc4backed Yes56c350$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1542661.5%16 W · 10 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+16.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc049…48abbacked Yes49c346.94$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.946142.6%26 W · 35 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb65c…dcdfbacked Yes60c346.67$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.671050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…eca0backed Yes58c345.79$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.232548%12 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed No40c330$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-30.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed No40c301.77$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.729746.4%45 W · 52 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Yes61c300$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1171428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-47.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed No45c300$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13511036.4%40 W · 70 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad28…770cbacked Yes59c300$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1233551.4%18 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xff63…5aa1backed No41c300$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+173.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe351…e48dbacked No38c300$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1144938.8%19 W · 30 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-17.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2076…bf0dbacked Yes54c300$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed No39c280.48$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.3923745.6%108 W · 129 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed No43c272$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.3122854.8%125 W · 103 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No43c272$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.3115454.5%84 W · 70 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9b5…7ba6backed Yes56c267.86$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.861637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x154b…4917backed No39c254.85$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.632142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid+18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2422…28febacked Yes56c251.79$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.792138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b99…4960backed No41c246.34$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9776…fc56backed Yes57c246.07$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.071631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90f9…e894backed No44c245.19$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.948154.3%44 W · 37 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec54…a03dbacked Yes53c244$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.68475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+19.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42ed…d13dbacked Yes62c241.94$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.941241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Yes50c240$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12011252.7%59 W · 53 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a9c…5480backed No40c230.07$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.432365.2%15 W · 8 L+4.7wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+80.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes44c227.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.276439.1%25 W · 39 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9014…db4abacked No43c226$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.37061.4%43 W · 27 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xac8d…f98cbacked Yes53c224.39$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.392040%8 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9792…9212backed Yes53c223$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.81250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeddf…a953backed No45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008532.9%28 W · 57 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-14.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x21c1…692cbacked No45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002564%16 W · 9 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+35.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9678…b4bfbacked Yes47c212.48$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.82832.1%9 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed No43c204$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.7215453.9%83 W · 71 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d6c…2854backed Yes48c203.42$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.785156.9%29 W · 22 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e88…f3c9backed No43c202.31$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.48714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-79.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7a7…64bfbacked Yes60c200$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.