Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-12-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc2a5a902003b2c79af9c3f5645f819d474a8f992bbe51eb2e7e37d70b6c44c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,060
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 19c | 4,823$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.32 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Yes | 19c | 2,940$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.9 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa5…7cc9backed No | 78c | 2,764$2,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.08 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 20c | 743.83$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.5 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 19c | 691.58$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.4 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 13c | 654.55$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 18c | 639$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.68 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 22c | 600$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe4…5c4fbacked No | 80c | 480$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 23c | 469$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.87 | 151 | 34.4%52 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 19c | 437.96$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.56 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8276…1204backed No | 78c | 382.05$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc122…731fbacked Yes | 18c | 270.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 19c | 263.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2422…28febacked Yes | 23c | 256.52$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 17c | 250$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…fd61backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 22c | 234$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.38 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 16c | 203.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 17c | 193.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 21c | 175.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 19c | 172$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.3wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…cf81backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 37cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…3d44backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Yes | 16c | 63.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f3…c87fbacked Yes | 17c | 59.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 79c | 55.11$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…d43cbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 80c | 17.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-12-13?this page
- Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw?No won
- Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2025-12-13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.