Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed6e81372f25d859dd984fb6da715d760f07b153c03967ec2b774d7dfe27c6cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,149
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,149 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 77c | 3,863$2,956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.83 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b0…8c4cbacked Yes | 32c | 1,674$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.7 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…b6a5backed Yes | 23c | 1,630$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +5.7wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed No | 79c | 1,544$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.28 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 9c | 1,057$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.85 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 76c | 999.64$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.48 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ff…62ccbacked Yes | 24c | 834.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 76c | 804.58$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.1 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 14c | 654.55$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c9…2e68backed Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 16c | 525$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.65 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 21c | 389.3$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.75 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da0…2f48backed No | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 19c | 313.47$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.35 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc587…1630backed No | 79c | 134.97$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 8c | 122.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 88 | 70.5%62 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…d2ffbacked Yes | 23c | 64.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…0852backed No | 78c | 46.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 75cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 77c | 35.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6af1…0b91backed No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bee…aa9ebacked No | 79c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…d43cbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee09…1199backed No | 70c | 27.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabc7…2f88backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 79c | 19.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…03c8backed No | 80c | 16.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-12-13?No won
- Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2025-12-13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.