Bundesliga · resolved market
SC Freiburg vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11710a61d5cdc4dd67925fa828eaa6c5944f66a242315cb49358e8c7f928e0ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,168
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,168 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 47c | 3,973$1,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,880.09 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…9124backed No | 3c | 3,900$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed No | 45c | 2,000$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Yes | 55c | 1,809$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.41 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Yes | 59c | 1,536$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.59 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked No | 44c | 1,500$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.99 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 56c | 1,368$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.25 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 42c | 1,225$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.7 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Yes | 62c | 1,040$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.03 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Yes | 50c | 1,018$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.36 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 56c | 714.29$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.29 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 37c | 630.28$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.74 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed No | 42c | 600$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Yes | 56c | 505.99$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.64 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa0…fbbdbacked No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Yes | 55c | 433.75$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.75 | 83 | 63.9%53 W · 30 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 45c | 303.9$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.18 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed No | 45c | 249.98$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.49 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 43c | 229.6$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.32 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Yes | 55c | 190.74$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.83 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 51c | 188.48$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.14 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb32e…a46abacked Yes | 53c | 115$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.05 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…f4d0backed Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd22…7025backed Yes | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Yes | 51c | 73.31$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 45c | 56.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d00…a6f3backed Yes | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a6…c0fabacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 63cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Yes | 52c | 46.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50ca…bfddbacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24e…f8e1backed Yes | 53c | 37.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3153…05bcbacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3481…6b3cbacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb3…ae1ebacked No | 47c | 35.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd323…64acbacked Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3802…d623backed Yes | 54c | 33.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc57d…3eeebacked Yes | 55c | 23.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -7.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Freiburg vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- SC Freiburg vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 1.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5Under won
- SC Freiburg vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5)SC Freiburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.