TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

SC Freiburg vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$89,047
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$91,811

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,047 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Under53c17,736$9,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,335.853961.5%24 W · 15 L+4.7wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+26.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd5ab…6ca3backed Under53c10,819$5,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,081.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under64c9,758$6,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,50853645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5873…f69abacked Over35c8,600$3,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,010944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick31cpaid+35.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Over45c8,497$3,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,829.9475142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over46c5,839$2,682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,682.273,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,50033244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf5d…7253backed Over44c4,499$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,979.56333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x206e…e75ebacked Over50c2,732$1,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,366425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-45.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ce…6f34backed Under51c2,409$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,168.91742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Over49c2,000$982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.3415847.5%75 W · 83 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Over50c1,998$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9995147.1%24 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Over49c1,350$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.522747.1%107 W · 120 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over51c1,180$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.61346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over39c1,026$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4006134.4%21 W · 40 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa39a…1246backed Over48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4808068.8%55 W · 25 L+7.5wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfc97…7d32backed Over53c915.09$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Under60c884.21$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.7419544.6%87 W · 108 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd05…1ce5backed Over52c865.38$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e7d…5881backed Over24c840.71$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.7740%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Under53c796.15$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.192867.9%19 W · 9 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+29.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x79cc…8026backed Over52c748.92$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.496350.8%32 W · 31 L-6.1wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-18.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Over44c681.32$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.1851136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc2c7…bd87backed Over52c580$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.61464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x816e…8263backed Over18c558$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+51.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xafdc…c2a2backed Under52c530.77$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.772100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+90.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Over53c522.64$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2772450%12 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under50c519.66$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.3244749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe930…b44dbacked Over44c514.08$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.23537.1%13 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x775e…6541backed Over18c500$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908336.1%30 W · 53 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…db98backed Over40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-28.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x85df…9124backed Over4c404.53$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.18119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick5cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb960…8c47backed Over29c400$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-55.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6579…b0a5backed Over33c347.65$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.39560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+74.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d9d…e6c3backed Under61c329.51$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.51666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+38.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under51c315.39$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.7878248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x78a4…ea47backed Over54c303.2$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.731942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Under49c300$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15311036.4%40 W · 70 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x172d…6f3ebacked Over55c272.73$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1509062.2%56 W · 34 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over39c269.75$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.21,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa35f…b58fbacked Over65c259.64$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.7810642.5%45 W · 61 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Under52c249.98$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.999350.5%47 W · 46 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Over48c231.25$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11134547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9b5…7ba6backed Over45c221.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under50c204.21$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.7614157.4%81 W · 60 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Over43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8613142%55 W · 76 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Over51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1029173.6%67 W · 24 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick67cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ca6…0d08backed Over65c200$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-50.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xceda…e67bbacked Over51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100812.5%1 W · 7 L-3.1wins-0.38per pick51cpaid-78.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2aa1…dba8backed Over55c181.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004252.4%22 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x380c…1099backed Over53c170.11$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.1613073.1%95 W · 35 L+9.9wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7f83…a491backed Over50c170$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.71643.8%7 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Over46c163.35$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7520753.6%111 W · 96 L+22.3wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+24.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe48c…163abacked Over45c157.78$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719548.4%46 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over51c156.59$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8034655.5%192 W · 154 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Over15c152$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.87532%24 W · 51 L-0.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x648c…f456backed Over52c136.54$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7cd…0888backed Over51c127.19$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.871833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-29.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x50ca…bfddbacked Over38c113.73$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.351861.1%11 W · 7 L+3.0wins+0.17per pick44cpaid+31.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over32c109.22$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.812,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92d8…9762backed Under10c106.38$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.744447.7%21 W · 23 L+7.0wins+0.16per pick32cpaid+260.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3cf3…50d9backed Over40c102.5$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed Over49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb84d…8b3abacked Over49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501250%6 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011060%66 W · 44 L+13.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+26%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x051c…f25dbacked Over42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Over51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.58551.8%44 W · 41 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xefdd…217fbacked Over40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3459…808abacked Over20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205621.4%12 W · 44 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Under70c99.44$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8338055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f56…f93cbacked Over52c96.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-34.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb85e…e18dbacked Over53c94.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503250%16 W · 16 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+27.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd235…6eebbacked Over49c93.88$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4611943.7%52 W · 67 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+20.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x82e3…2151backed Over55c90.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-46.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16b3…07f2backed Over55c90.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502564%16 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+20.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6562…4e48backed Over42c87.78$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7711065.5%72 W · 38 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f21…dc40backed Over49c81.63$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-44.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x28c8…aaccbacked Over50c80$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc8…f45bbacked Over38c78.95$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302030%6 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12f7…ff1fbacked Over50c77$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.51136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7f6…5ac8backed Over44c74.41$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.953020%6 W · 24 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-51.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa710…f1ccbacked Over55c72.73$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4017930.2%54 W · 125 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58ca…0672backed Over50c70$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+67.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ef1…8ec6backed Over49c61.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed Over47c53$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9114254.2%77 W · 65 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xda0f…f0e7backed Over23c50.1$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.522951.7%15 W · 14 L+5.4wins+0.19per pick33cpaid+257.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9784…e452backed Over36c49.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick42cpaid+34.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf60b…ff5fbacked Under48c41.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.672352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f02…c594backed Over49c40.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick48cpaid-42.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf30a…3583backed Over49c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.41275%9 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+22.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under64c39.99$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.448658.6%285 W · 201 L+44.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6474…7ab8backed Over51c39.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206439.1%25 W · 39 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3647…6250backed Over52c38.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd323…64acbacked Over53c37.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3bc5…7ac4backed Over55c36.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cc0…e0a6backed Over50c35.56$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c67…21eebacked Over50c34.1$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.054540%18 W · 27 L-7.3wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-36.3%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over48c33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.847541.3%31 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9eae…98a5backed Over48c31.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159468.1%64 W · 30 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick71cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d61…d43cbacked Under51c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.72673.1%19 W · 7 L+4.5wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+31.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.