Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6aa6a1eebf974cbfe6968c8d519b8314d07ea63fa2a88dcbdf68b330913c5bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SC Freiburgof BV Borussia 09 Dortmund, SC Freiburg
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78ad…45ccbacked SC Freiburg | 78c | 6,420$5,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,412.34 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 22c | 4,549$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.22 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked SC Freiburg | 77c | 1,104$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.9 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 22c | 779.98$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.6 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 24c | 600$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 25c | 147.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -70%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 24c | 89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f02…c594backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb269…6adebacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 22c | 55.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5485…231cbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 30c | 33.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed SC Freiburg | 78c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed SC Freiburg | 70c | 28.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked SC Freiburg | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed SC Freiburg | 76c | 16.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 112 | 81.3%91 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd873…32f6backed SC Freiburg | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 78cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5)this page
- SC Freiburg vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SC Freiburg vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 1.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5Under won
- SC Freiburg vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.