Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Obvious" during July Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1d0fd7dfad29761c6bb2ed7217377d9b64239a0f55e23fcbd354e4f49e8b156
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,979
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,979 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed No | 61c | 1,035$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.86 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x226d…f49ebacked Yes | 39c | 600$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…bdf6backed Yes | 41c | 450$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.5 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 64c | 444$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.84 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 36c | 444$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.84 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa147…3fccbacked No | 65c | 307.28$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.28 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…0a49backed No | 63c | 286.63$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.95 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 64cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 35c | 252.49$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.3 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 40c | 250.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.28 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 63c | 249.96$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.49 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed No | 64c | 222$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.92 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0417…ddecbacked Yes | 38c | 212.56$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8e…3abbbacked Yes | 39c | 182.51$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 61c | 174.99$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.25 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a1e…df17backed Yes | 79c | 164.95$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…9c77backed No | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecf6…8145backed No | 66c | 152.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.33 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed No | 59c | 141.41$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.98 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x176f…460abacked Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe898…769fbacked Yes | 38c | 105.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64b2…a51abacked Yes | 38c | 103.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 42c | 103.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.28 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe65f…a749backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 64c | 98.5$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…d308backed Yes | 37c | 81.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba90…99b9backed Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe219…d8afbacked Yes | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…71b6backed No | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked No | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4c…3486backed Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1f…ce09backed Yes | 38c | 57.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…a880backed No | 62c | 52.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 21c | 48.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +211.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0815…d0ddbacked No | 65c | 43.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.44per pick | 57cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510c…4dccbacked Yes | 41c | 41.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 63c | 39.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 61c | 39.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 55c | 39.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d4…c8f5backed Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e74…1165backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 70cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a31…1bebbacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked No | 61c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5c…c54bbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Obvious" during July Press Conference?this page
- Will Powell say "China" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Downbeat" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Employment / Unemployment" 20+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Renovation" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Spike" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Step/Stepping Down" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Uncertainty" 7+ times during July Press Conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.