Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Pandemic" during July Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb0363c6ec93a6ad7fc057e4136cb69eca9467bb9ab1d0936a8cfd2b468f0d68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,388
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,525
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,388 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7b1…8887backed No | 29c | 1,505$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 13c | 1,450$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.5 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 71c | 1,253$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.51 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 27c | 1,164$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.46 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed No | 30c | 1,000$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…a880backed Yes | 65c | 999.98$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.99 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed Yes | 72c | 978.03$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.63 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.23per pick | 45cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad6…464cbacked Yes | 71c | 923.21$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.99 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed Yes | 70c | 899.99$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76a0…0da6backed No | 34c | 707.94$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe65f…a749backed No | 33c | 700$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x226d…f49ebacked No | 31c | 642.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8341…de89backed Yes | 70c | 600$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91b3…f991backed No | 32c | 584.67$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 61c | 547.36$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.27 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 66c | 544.12$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…0a49backed Yes | 71c | 520$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 64cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1932…4e5abacked No | 29c | 500$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed No | 29c | 450.65$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.69 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 73c | 408.98$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.72 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed No | 35c | 400$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…ed8fbacked Yes | 74c | 391.33$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed No | 28c | 356.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…9c77backed No | 32c | 314.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 72c | 299.96$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.59 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked Yes | 68c | 296.78$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.97 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed No | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6030…5e0fbacked No | 26c | 271.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.48 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 33c | 255$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.1 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed No | 25c | 240$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed Yes | 72c | 221.99$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.16 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7604…32cbbacked Yes | 76c | 204.85$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.61 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 30c | 204.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.31 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…5ababacked Yes | 73c | 200$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.05 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9212…2ff6backed No | 26c | 180.55$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked Yes | 71c | 179.99$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.4 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 67c | 160.75$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.05 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 74c | 140.03$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa884…5505backed No | 43c | 129.53$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed No | 29c | 111.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ab…9c67backed No | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…0a2cbacked No | 28c | 110.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…2db9backed No | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 27c | 100.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c1…54b0backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…bdf6backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec52…59e8backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +132.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…05e7backed No | 25c | 97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9394…37dabacked Yes | 74c | 96.64$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecf6…8145backed No | 26c | 94.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0d…d3a5backed No | 25c | 91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31a0…1680backed Yes | 78c | 90.22$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +297.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…b955backed No | 44c | 80.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked No | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1511…30babacked No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56a5…1c44backed No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 29c | 79.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf002…6221backed Yes | 68c | 79.43$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 30c | 78.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69cd…06f3backed No | 26c | 76.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…80c1backed No | 32c | 74.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cc…f848backed Yes | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…1917backed No | 27c | 67.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5037…a863backed No | 30c | 67.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab1…7df3backed No | 76c | 67$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.09 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 60cpaid | -51%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 25c | 61.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x642a…994bbacked No | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed Yes | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a61…a2e4backed No | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked No | 27c | 52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffde…219dbacked No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 67cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +6.1wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…aee5backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6438…ef03backed No | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9596…b1e4backed Yes | 72c | 49.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bf…8ecebacked No | 22c | 47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 71c | 46.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedd7…ca6bbacked Yes | 77c | 45.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +381.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4f…0652backed No | 26c | 40.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84e9…2285backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077e…b941backed No | 32c | 33.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9f…e209backed Yes | 78c | 30.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcee…bda5backed No | 45c | 30.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e74…1165backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 70cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb11a…a80ebacked Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d4…c8f5backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 69c | 24.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dbc…7610backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 71c | 16.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43e2…88bcbacked Yes | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d0…77cbbacked Yes | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during July Press Conference?this page
- Will Powell say "China" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Downbeat" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Employment / Unemployment" 20+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Obvious" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Renovation" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Spike" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Step/Stepping Down" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Uncertainty" 7+ times during July Press Conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.