Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Renovation" during July Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01b241ec19ca69e130ef00e8b3c3b8f4505e31ccae81b76d0aa3661f9a440b4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,536
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,565
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,536 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 72c | 4,384$3,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.67 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 31c | 1,370$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 29c | 1,300$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.99 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 73c | 1,250$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.07 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 73c | 1,223$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.14 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 28c | 1,000$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 29c | 972.08$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.22 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2360…1c1cbacked Yes | 39c | 906.01$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 72c | 706.67$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.29 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf5…e387backed Yes | 26c | 630$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…07aabacked Yes | 33c | 463.55$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe99c…725ebacked Yes | 29c | 458.07$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed No | 50c | 402.15$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 50c | 375.12$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.56 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 29c | 361.91$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.95 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 67c | 350$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 31c | 333.41$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 69c | 329.98$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.39 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 29c | 302.65$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.57 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…0f76backed Yes | 27c | 300$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 26c | 288.54$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.22 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2398…3f89backed Yes | 17c | 264.56$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 29c | 230$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed No | 68c | 210.34$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 26c | 200.38$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…7f7bbacked Yes | 28c | 171.43$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed No | 69c | 161.59$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 33c | 150.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.62 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb030…9afdbacked Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb277…d809backed Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6f…a2bcbacked Yes | 19c | 146.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 25c | 141.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 26c | 140$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…c364backed No | 70c | 133.33$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…fbc2backed Yes | 32c | 130$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…d308backed Yes | 35c | 108.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed No | 70c | 108.4$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…aee5backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 27c | 97.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 56c | 95$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbc…799fbacked Yes | 34c | 93.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +239%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba4…0caabacked No | 79c | 89.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 71c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1739…1263backed No | 70c | 78$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1a…baf0backed No | 74c | 76$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x642a…994bbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked No | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x008b…9e3ebacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 30c | 51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0961…ea25backed Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked No | 67c | 42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf960…ba50backed Yes | 29c | 40.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9f…e209backed No | 74c | 31.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6500backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcebd…3769backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b889backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510c…4dccbacked No | 69c | 26.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 23.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65fd…7cdebacked No | 70c | 17.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Renovation" during July Press Conference?this page
- Will Powell say "China" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Downbeat" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Employment / Unemployment" 20+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Obvious" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Spike" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Step/Stepping Down" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Uncertainty" 7+ times during July Press Conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.