Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during July Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c88956b356ba3d20d76adc88e97e63641e937ca128b1bee5a705902c130138d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,939
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 22c | 3,508$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.15 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde02…4263backed Yes | 2c | 2,406$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63d4…a2f1backed No | 78c | 1,968$1,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb71…9f37backed Yes | 23c | 1,776$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed No | 78c | 1,346$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.32 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 67cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcca0…3738backed Yes | 18c | 1,276$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.08 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b8…832abacked Yes | 22c | 985.51$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +328%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…9c77backed Yes | 20c | 979.48$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43a3…2a7abacked Yes | 15c | 811.01$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d3…40d8backed Yes | 15c | 657.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…c011backed Yes | 16c | 626.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +130.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x920b…9889backed Yes | 24c | 615.77$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7797…dfaabacked Yes | 19c | 612.88$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d40…ec52backed No | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 14c | 499.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5a…4b33backed Yes | 13c | 446.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 14c | 413$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.91 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a8…6b32backed Yes | 17c | 386.24$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe73d…65cabacked Yes | 15c | 359.33$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 19c | 351.41$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.24 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8718…294bbacked Yes | 15c | 349.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x725b…576dbacked Yes | 15c | 289.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf163…7e09backed Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 255.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…c364backed Yes | 17c | 249.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed No | 76c | 249.68$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.92 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x723b…4745backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2398…3f89backed Yes | 23c | 197.72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf94…0c96backed Yes | 22c | 185.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89cd…5b6bbacked Yes | 23c | 174.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf9…623cbacked Yes | 12c | 161.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf806…9762backed Yes | 16c | 160$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcb…b930backed Yes | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +157.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes | 16c | 157.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 22c | 155.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 72c | 152$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked No | 62c | 139.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.6 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Yes | 18c | 136.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 11c | 132.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb16c…1334backed Yes | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 54c | 128.26$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +9.2wins | +0.44per pick | 14cpaid | +420%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x816a…e031backed Yes | 24c | 125.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…f825backed No | 79c | 120$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d12…58a2backed Yes | 18c | 111.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1511…30babacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x276f…bfb5backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…ef57backed Yes | 19c | 108.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 16c | 105.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe898…769fbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed Yes | 22c | 97.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9853…e86abacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa600…d26dbacked Yes | 19c | 87.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 16c | 86.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff0…216dbacked Yes | 19c | 84.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +185.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x176f…460abacked Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e2…2964backed Yes | 18c | 82.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 66c | 76.43$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92c8…0c5bbacked No | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc389…ec7dbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc7…151ebacked Yes | 27c | 56.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dbc…7610backed Yes | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa767…8a36backed Yes | 35c | 42.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ec…2218backed Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 70c | 33.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +6.1wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8828…3e50backed Yes | 38c | 31.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ad…79d0backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07e6…7ac1backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc5…7ca0backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during July Press Conference?this page
- Will Powell say "China" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Downbeat" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Employment / Unemployment" 20+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Obvious" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Renovation" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Spike" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Step/Stepping Down" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Uncertainty" 7+ times during July Press Conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.