Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Step/Stepping Down" during July Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85a399cd3341ca5803794363410e11a6d71bc0568e5740eff62f57e9509aefbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,575
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,575 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 2c | 3,319$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.24 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +211.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 74c | 1,123$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.59 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2360…1c1cbacked Yes | 26c | 953.26$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 64c | 900$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.52 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 2c | 769.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.13 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +150%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 69c | 395.4$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed Yes | 33c | 389.86$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.65 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 79c | 379.14$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.16 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c3…a800backed Yes | 15c | 365.2$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 27c | 269.48$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.94 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 75c | 239$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 27c | 220$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 49c | 209$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.59 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 36c | 150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 137$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.93 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d12…58a2backed Yes | 17c | 117.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x816a…e031backed Yes | 26c | 115.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb030…9afdbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e5…dbc9backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 74c | 79.92$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7004…50d2backed Yes | 26c | 78.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…f0ccbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…3281backed No | 77c | 69.05$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3835…7f72backed Yes | 29c | 67.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked Yes | 34c | 64.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 64c | 50.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe65f…a749backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…fbc2backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42fa…380abacked Yes | 26c | 43.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed No | 74c | 43.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 67cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 31c | 33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked No | 74c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8904…01d3backed No | 56c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3d…b13abacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Step/Stepping Down" during July Press Conference?this page
- Will Powell say "China" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Downbeat" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Employment / Unemployment" 20+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Obvious" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Renovation" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Spike" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Uncertainty" 7+ times during July Press Conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.