Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Recession" during July Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf81dfa9e35a5b71847ff9336568d8297fb562ae89450d76da214dc9d9e26642
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,106
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,106 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 45c | 5,754$2,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,159.54 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf29f…5ccabacked Yes | 55c | 5,000$2,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,750 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…1b02backed No | 58c | 1,719$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed Yes | 48c | 1,344$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.13 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed No | 55c | 775.9$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 54c | 584.11$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 51c | 573.5$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.94 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 37c | 550.29$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.61 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…5ababacked No | 46c | 530$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.24 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf77a…f65cbacked Yes | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6030…5e0fbacked Yes | 43c | 499.99$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 38c | 434.07$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.01 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 55c | 415.52$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.97 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba90…99b9backed Yes | 47c | 384$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x616b…4070backed No | 62c | 323.79$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 50c | 315.77$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.5 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d4…c8f5backed Yes | 59c | 297.49$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.78 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 40c | 249.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.99 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…0a49backed No | 45c | 210$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 64cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc9…0101backed Yes | 54c | 183.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e34…c674backed Yes | 44c | 175$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88f5…828abacked No | 58c | 172.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 53c | 159.16$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.58 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 63c | 157.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.81 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 50c | 145$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.4 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce70…0a90backed Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed No | 45c | 139.2$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.1 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 38c | 128.43$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.17 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 55c | 127.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc32b…a33abacked Yes | 48c | 115.72$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3835…7f72backed Yes | 58c | 111.86$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec52…59e8backed No | 57c | 109$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe65f…a749backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…6c3fbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…f9f2backed Yes | 53c | 96.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.05 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x008b…9e3ebacked Yes | 53c | 93.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 49c | 92.58$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…7f7bbacked Yes | 58c | 85.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e0…6c39backed Yes | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x536a…7de2backed Yes | 47c | 63.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcd…f3b5backed No | 53c | 60.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 51c | 53.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb526…e778backed No | 53c | 50.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked No | 44c | 50.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4003…5073backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18e0…d024backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe219…d8afbacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 31c | 42.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a61…a2e4backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf002…6221backed No | 55c | 38.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94aa…fd20backed No | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf82…c406backed Yes | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 34c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b889backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb11a…a80ebacked Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b22…acb2backed Yes | 49c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e74…1165backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 70cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4f…026bbacked No | 53c | 29.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 51c | 28.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7543…f11dbacked Yes | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3176…b725backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…b1e6backed No | 65c | 21.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +117.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb85d…4ac4backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43e2…88bcbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55bf…e2ddbacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe68c…4d6ebacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9c…fdf9backed Yes | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Recession" during July Press Conference?this page
- Will Powell say "China" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Downbeat" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Employment / Unemployment" 20+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Obvious" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Renovation" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Spike" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Step/Stepping Down" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Uncertainty" 7+ times during July Press Conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.